Analiza efektu Harbergera-Laursena-Metzlera w Polsce

• Autorzy: Piotr Misztal

Warianty tytułu

The Harber-Laursen-Metzler Effect in Poland

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Celem artykułu jest zbadanie efektu Harbergera-Laursena-Metzlera w świetle teorii i w praktyce, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem występowania tego efektu w Polsce w okresie Q1.1995-Q3.2009. Wyniki badań przeprowadzonych przy pomocy modelu wektorowej autoregresji (VAR) ujawniły, że przejściowa poprawa cenowych terms of trade w Polsce prowadziła do poprawy salda bilansu obrotów bieżących, zaś trwała poprawa cenowych terms of trade przyczyniała się do pogorszenia salda bilansu obrotów bieżących. Potwierdzono zatem występowanie efektu Harbergera-Laursena-Metzlera w Polsce. Ponadto, potwierdzono stosunkowo większe oddziaływanie przejściowych zmian cenowych terms of trade na saldo bilansu obrotów bieżących, niż trwałych zmian tego wskaźnika. Analogiczną prawidłowość ujawniono także w odniesieniu do wyjaśnienia zmienności salda rachunku obrotów bieżących. Otóż, przejściowe zmiany cenowych terms of trade wyjaśniały w ponad dwukrotnie większym stopniu zmienność salda bilansu obrotów bieżących w porównaniu do trwałych zmian cenowych terms of trade. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The aim of the paper is to analyse of the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect in light of the theory and in practice, with particular reference to this effect in Poland in the period 1995-2009. The results of research carried out by means of the vector autoregression model (VAR) revealed that temporary improvement in terms of trade in Poland led to the current account improvement, and permanent improvement in terms of trade contributed to the current account deterioration. Thus it was confirmed prevalence of the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect in Poland. Additionally, results of investigation confirmed relatively greater impact of temporary changes in terms of trade on the current account than in the case of permanent changes in terms of trade. Analogous interdependence was revealed witch reference to explanation of the current account variability. Temporary changes in terms of trade accounted for in much more degree the current account variability in relation to permanent changes in terms of trade. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Terms of trade; Rachunek obrotów bieżących; Wzrost gospodarczy; Model wektorowej autoregresji

EN

Terms of trade; Current account; Economic growth; Vector Autoregression Model (VAR)

• Czasopismo: Oeconomia Copernicana
• Rocznik: 2012
• Tom: 3
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 5--28

Twórcy

autor

Piotr Misztal

• Politechnika Radomska im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego

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