2013 | 1 | nr 1 Crisis in the Euro Zone and Ways of Its Overcoming | 75--86
Impact of the Crisis in the Euro Zone on the Business Cycle in Poland from a Macroeconomic Point of View
The paper is devoted to: the state of a business cycle in the last five years; the picture of the Polish economy as a "green isle". Both of these points will be analyzed from a point of view: economy as a whole, which Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of production; economic sectors - material production/service sector (MPS) and non material service sector (NMPS) - which gross value - added is a measure of production. The aim of the is paper is to prove that the crisis in the euro zone had a different impact on the business cycle in the sectors MPS and NMPS. A macroeconomic analysis of the business cycle may by a source of the false diagnostic and the wrong political decisions. When in an economy a sector business cycle asymmetry takes place, a macroeconomic analysis cannot reveal this phenomenon. In the consequence, the specific sector factors of the business cycle are not observed. The purpose of the publication is to determine whether, in the Polish economy in 2008-2012 there was an asymmetry or not. It is assumed that the sector business cycle asymmetry (in the following quarters of the year) occurs if: the gross value added of a sector shows a positive growth rate (more than 1%), while the second sector - negative rate (more than 1%), the gross value added of a sector shows a positive growth rate, while the second sector - the rate of zero (to within ±1%.), the gross value added of a sector has a zero growth rate, while the second sector - a rate of zero; gross value added has a positive/negative growth rate higher/lower by at least 3 percentage points from that for the second sector. A Sector business cycle asymmetry may have a dual nature. In point a), b) and c) it relates to the directional differences in terms of trade (zero versus positive versus negative) growth of particular sectors (directional asymmetry), and in point d) - the difference in terms of positive/negative growth (dynamic asymmetry). The study takes a rare situation under consideration in the analysis of the issue of asymmetry cyclical sector, based on a new methodology which assumes the division of the economy into sectors NMPS MPS. (original abstract)
- Arestis Ph. (ed.) (2011), The financial crisis. Origins and implication, New York.
- European Commission (2013), European Economic Forecast, European Commission staff working document", Spring.
- Grace K. et al (2010), Factors GDP growth in Poland and the Czech Republic in 2009, Economist, no. 6.
- IMF (2013), World Economic Outlook: hopes, realities, risks, April.
- Łaski K. i inni (2010), Czynniki wzrostu PKB w Polsce i w Czechach w 2009. Ekonomista, no 6.
- NBP (2013), Raport o inflacji, March.
- OECD (2012), Economic Survey of Poland, March.
- Romer D. (2000), Makroekonomia dla zaawansowanych, Warszawa.
- Romer D. (2000), Advanced macroeconomics, Warszawa.