O sposobie integracji Polski z obszarem euro : niektóre dyskusyjne punkty Strategii polityki pieniężnej po 2003 roku
Some Controversial Aspects of "The Monetary Policy Strategy beyond 2003"
Omówiono założenia nowej Strategii polityki pieniężnej po 2003 roku. Podjęto problem kontrowersji w sprawie przystąpienia Polski do strefy euro.
One of the issues tackled in the new manifesto of the Monetary Policy Council - The Monetary Policy Strategy beyond 2003 - is the prospect of replacing the national currency with the Euro, which is the final step on the way to full integration of the Polish and EU economies and the fulfilment of our obligation under the Treaty of Accession. According to the scenario presented in the Strategy, Poland should be ready to enter the Euro area as early as in 2007. This means, that soon after Poland joins the European Union, the Polish Zloty will enter the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (EERM) in its current, modified form. Such a standpoint raises serious doubts whether the haste to meet the nominal convergence criteria and to replace the national currency with the pan-European one would create optimal initial conditions for a high GNP growth rate and for a stable and reasonable level of employment. Though this paper highlights the great significance that the EU membership has for Poland and the potential future benefits of the common currency, it also emphasises the fact that at present the mechanisms of the Monetary Union are under enormous pressure and they may be soon modified. What is more, even if the system remained unchanged, as long as the Polish economy does not undergo major transformations which would encourage exports or, in other words, until the real, not just nominal, convergence takes place (though this term should not be understood as fast redressing of disparities in economic development between the old and new Member States of the EU), the common currency system, as it is today, may pose considerable threats to Poland. Faced with several other internal and external factors, particularly the globalisation of finance markets and the growing susceptibility of our economy to the influx of "flying capital", we should not disregard the threats stemming from the real appreciation of the exchange rate and its consequences for competitiveness, economic growth and the level of employment. Therefore the author supports the idea of joining the EERM, but he suggests that its implementation should be deferred until the Polish economy undergoes some major structural transformations. A skilfully implemented active exchange rate policy could minimise this delay. The author presents the basics of such an exchange rate strategy, emphasising its advantages and relative safety. (original abstract)
- E. Łętowska: Prawo umów konsumenckich. Warszawa 2002 C.H. Beck, s. 360.