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Czasopismo
2010 | nr 7-8 | 21--43
Tytuł artykułu

Wages, Prices and Unemployment in Poland

Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The paper aims to analyze long-run relationships between labor market trends, wages, prices, interest rates and the exchange rate in Poland. We use a research approach known as cointegrated VAR analysis, which makes it possible to identify long-run tendencies and common stochastic trends as well as estimate the adjustment dynamics of the system (the pulling and pushing forces). The results show that we can find stable long-run cointegration relationships between the unemployment rate, wages and prices. We can confirm our two main research hypotheses formulated on the basis of theoretical formulations. First of all, increasing product market competition seems to be the main driving force behind the convergence of the Polish economy with more advanced European economies during the analyzed period. Second, we can confirm that the Polish inflation rate has adapted to the European purchasing power parity level over the long run, and we can also confirm a kind of Balassa-Samuelson effect on consumer prices. (original abstract)
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
21--43
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • University of Lodz, Poland; National Bank of Poland
  • University of Lodz, Poland; National Bank of Poland
Bibliografia
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  • Juselius K., [2006], The Cointegrated VAR, Methodology and Applications, Oxford University Press.
  • Juselius K., Ordonez J., [2009], Balassa-Samuelson and Wage, Price and Unemployment Dynamics in the Spanish Transition to EMU Membership, http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/ journalarticles/2009-4
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  • Layard R., Nickell S., Jackman R., [1991], Unemployment, Oxford University Press.
  • Linzert T., [2001], Sources of German Unemployment: Evidence from a Structural VAR Model, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 01-40.
  • Marcellino M., Mizon G.E., [1999], Modeling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland and the UK, "Economic Modelling", No. 17.
  • Marquez C.B., [2008], Wage and price dynamics in Portugal, ECB Working Paper No. 945.
  • Phelps E.S., [1967], Phillips curves, expectations of inflation, and optimal unemployment over time, "Economica", 34, 254-281.
  • Phillips A.W.H., [1958], The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957, "Economica", 25, 283-299.
  • Todano K.R., [2006], A partial VAR analysis of wages and price formation in South Africa, South African Reserve Bank.
  • Welfe A., Kelm R., Majsterek M., [2002], Agregatowy model inflacji, "Przegląd Statystyczny", Vol. 49, No. 3.
  • Welfe A., Osiewalski J., [1998], The Price Wage Mechanism: An Endogenous Switching Model, "European Economic Review", Vol. 42, No. 2.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171265533

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