Temporary Brain Drain, Distance to the Frontier, and Welfare at Origin

• Autorzy: Daniel Wiśniewski

Warianty tytułu

Tymczasowy drenaż mózgów, dystans do krajów najbogatszych oraz dobrobyt w krajach wysyłających

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The article analyzes the possible impact of a brain drain on the economies of six selected European countries, suggesting that this impact may be positive in the long run due to a combination of factors including temporary migration, an educational effect and increased capability for technology adoption. According to the author, research shows that temporary migration is a widespread trend that involves a significant number of people, especially during an economic crisis. Recent empirical studies also confirm that temporary migration may have a positive effect on the economies of sending countries, improving their total factor productivity (TFP) and speeding up technology adoption, the author says. The article develops a simple two-period model analyzing the possible "brain gain" pattern resulting from return migration. The model is structured so as to show changes in the human capital of both sending and receiving countries in the short and long run. This mathematical structure is then simulated with the use of statistical data from various sources. Each studied country experiences an unexpected shock resulting in either an increase or a decrease of the brain drain, which is then fixed in the subsequent periods. The empirical results indicate that most developed countries are likely to benefit from a brain gain, whereas poorer states usually experience a brain drain in the long run, the author says. The opposite is true of welfare, he adds: the simulations indicate that poorer countries are likely to experience significant economic growth. (original abstract)

Głównym celem tego artykułu jest analiza drenażu mózgów, który może mieć pozytywny wpływ na gospodarki krajów europejskich ze względu na migracje tymczasowe, efekt edukacyjny oraz zwiększone możliwości adaptacji technologii. Współczesne analizy empiryczne potwierdzają, że migracje tymczasowe to powszechne zjawisko, zwłaszcza w czasie kryzysu ekonomicznego, które może mieć pozytywny wpływ na produktywność całkowitą, co w rezultacie prowadzi do zwiększenia możliwości adopcji nowych technologii. Poniższy artykuł rozwija dwuetapowy model generacyjny rozpatrujący możliwy wzrost kapitału ludzkiego wynikający z migracji tymczasowych. Wspomniany model jest zorganizowany w sposób pozwalający zaobserwować zmiany w poziomie kapitału ludzkiego w krajach wysyłających i przyjmujących zarówno w krótkim jak i długim okresie czasu. Następnie ta struktura matematyczna zostaje użyta w symulacji dla sześciu państw europejskich. Każdy kraj doświadcza niespodziewanego szoku gospodarczego wynikającego ze wzrostu lub spadku drenażu mózgów, którego poziom zostaje zablokowany w następnych okresach. Wyniki badań wskazują, że kraje wysoko rozwinięte powinny doświadczyć wzrostu kapitału ludzkiego podczas gdy kraje biedniejsze prawdopodobnie będą nadal cierpiały z powodu drenażu mózgów w dłuższej perspektywie czasowej. Zupełnie inne wnioski można jednak wysnuć w kwestii poziomu dobrobytu. Symulacje wykazują bowiem, że kraje gorzej rozwinięte doświadczą znaczącego wzrostu gospodarczego. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Human capital; Productivity; Diffusion; Population migration

PL

Kapitał ludzki; Produktywność; Dyfuzja; Migracja ludności

• Czasopismo: Gospodarka Narodowa
• Rocznik: 2013
• Numer: nr 5-6
• Strony: 69--96

Twórcy

autor

Daniel Wiśniewski

• Warsaw School of Economics, Poland, PhD student

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