The Relationship between Electricity Consumption, Electricity Price and Economic Growth in Turkey: 1984-2007

• Autorzy: Deniz AytaÇ , Mehmet Cahit Güran
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The experience of economic development and industrialization of countries has revealed the increasing importance of the energy factor, which is a basic production input in the production process. Empirical studies have shown that a positive causality relation exists between the energy consumption and economic growth performance of countries. Another variable the effects of which need to be studied alongside the relation between these two variables, is energy price. In this study, the Granger causality between energy price, energy consumption and economic growth of Turkey is examined for the 1987-2007 period using a VAR model and quarterly data. The results indicate that a bidirectional causality relation appears to exist between electricity consumption and GDP, and that there is a causality relation that runs from real GDP to electricity price.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Energy; Electric power; Energy use; Energy consumption; Economic growth

PL

Energia; Energia elektryczna; Zużycie energii; Konsumpcja energii; Wzrost gospodarczy

• Czasopismo: Argumenta Oeconomica
• Rocznik: 2011
• Numer: nr 2 (27)
• Strony: 101--123

Twórcy

autor

Deniz AytaÇ

• Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey

autor

Mehmet Cahit Güran

• Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey

Bibliografia

• Akarca, A. T., Long, T. V., Energy And Employment: A Time Series Analysis of the Causal Relatonship, "Resources Energy", (2), pp. 151-162, 1979.
• Akarca, A. T., Long, T. V., On the Relationship between Energy an "Journal of Energy and Development", 5(2), pp. 326-331, 1980.
• Altınay, G., Karagöl, E., Structural Break, Unit Root and the Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey, "Energy Economics", 26(6), pp. 985-994, 2004.
• Asafu-Adjaye, J., The Relationship between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Growth: Time Series Evidence from Asian Developing Countries, "Energy Economics", 22(6), pp. 615-625, 2000.
• Banerjee, A., Lumsdaine, R. L., Stock, J. H., Recursive and Sequental Test for a Unit Root: Theory and International Evidence, "Journal of Business and Economic Statistics", 10(3), pp. 271-287, 1992.
• Christiano, L. J., Searching for a Break in GNP, "Journal of Business and Economic Statistics", 10(3), pp. 237-250, 1992.
• Cleveland, C. J., Kaufmann, R. K., Stern, D. I., Analysis Aggregation and the Role of Energy in the Economy, "Ecological Economics", 32(2), pp. 301-317, 2000.
• Dickey, D. A., Bell, W. R., Miller, R. B., Unit Roots in Time Series Models: Tests and Implications, "The American Statistician", 40(1), pp. 12-26, 1986.
• Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A., Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, "Journal of American Statistical Association", 74(366), pp. 427-431, 1979.
• Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A., Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, "Econometrica", 49(4), pp. 1057-1072, 1981.
• DPT, Main Economic Indicators, State Planning Organization, 2003.
• DPT, Main Economic Indicators, State Planning Organization, 2004.
• DPT, Main Economic Indicators, State Planning Organization, 2005.
• DPT, Main Economic Indicators, State Planning Organization, 2006.
• DPT, Main Economic Indicators, State Planning Organization, 2007.
• DPT, Main Economic Indicators, State Planning Organization, 2008.
• Dunkerley, J., Estimation of Energy Demand: The Developing Countries, "Energy Journal", 3(2), pp. 79-99, 1982.
• Enders, W., Applied Econometric Time Series. John Wiley and Sons, New York 2004.
• EUA§, Production Statistics. (For Different Years).
• Ghosh, S., Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in India, "Energy Policy", 30(2), pp. 125-129, 2002.
• Gujarati, D. N., Basic Econometrics. McGraw-Hill, New York 1995.
• Hamilton, J. D., Oil and The Macroeconomy Since World War II, "Journal of Political Economy", 91(2), pp. 228-248, 1983.
• Helm, D., Regulation of Utilities, "Oxford Review of Economic Policy", (4)2, i-xxxi, 1988.
• Helm, D., The Assesment: Energy Policy, "Oxford Review of Economic Policy", (7)2, pp. 116, 1991.
• IEA, Energy Prices and Taxes, International Energy Agency, 1988.
• IEA, Energy Prices and Taxes, International Energy Agency, 1990.
• IEA, Energy Prices and Taxes, International Energy Agency, 1995.
• IEA, Energy Prices and Taxes, International Energy Agency, 2000.
• IEA, Energy Prices and Taxes, International Energy Agency, 2007.
• Jobert, T., Karanfil, F., Sectoral Energy Consumption by Source and Economic Growth in Turkey, "Energy Policy", 35(11), pp. 5447-5456, 2007.
• Jumbe, C. B. L., Cointegration and Causality between Electricity Consumption and GDP: Empirical Evidence from Malawi, "Energy Economics", 26(1), pp. 61-68, 2004.
• Kraft, J., Kraft, A., On the Relationship between Energy and GDP, "Journal of Energy Development", 3(2), pp. 401-403, 1978.
• Lee, C. C., Chang, C. P., Energy Consumption and GDP Revisited: A Panel Analysis of Developed and Developing Countries, "Energy Economics", 29(6), pp. 1206-1223, 2007.
• Lise, W., Montfort, K. V., Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey: Is There a Cointegration Relationship?, "Energy Economics", 29(6), pp. 1166-1178, 2007.
• MacKinnon, J., Critical Values for Cointegration Tests, (in): Engle, R. F., Granger, C. W. J. (eds.), Long-Run Economic Relationships. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 267-276, 1991.
• MacKinnon, J., Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests, "Journal of Applied Econometrics", 11(6), pp. 601-618, 1996.
• Mahadevan, R., Asafu-Adjaye, J., Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Prices: A Reassesment Using Panel VECM for Developed and Developing Countries, "Energy Policy", 35(4), pp. 2481-2490, 2007.
• Masih, A. M. M., Masih, R., On the Temporal Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption, Real Income, and Prices: Some New Evidence from Asian-Energy Dependent NICs Based on a Multivariate Cointegration Vector Error Correction Approach, "Journal of Policy Modeling", 19(4), pp. 417-440, 1997.
• Masih, A. M. M., Masih, R., A Multivariate Cointegrated Modeling Approach in Testing Temporal Causality between Energy Consumption, Real Income and Prices with an Application to two Asian LDCs, "Applied Economics", 30(10), pp. 1287-1298, 1998.
• Narayan, P.K., Smyth, R., Electricity Consumption, Employment and Real Income in Australia: Evidence from Multivariate Granger Causality Tests, "Energy Policy", 33(9), 1109-1116, 2005.
• Nelson, C. R., Plosser, C. I., Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications, "Journal of Monetary Economics", 10(2), pp. 139-162, 1982.
• Oh, W., Lee, K., Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Korea: Testing Causality Relation, "Journal of Policy Modelling", 26(8-9), pp. 973-981, 2004.
• Patterson, K., An Introduction to Applied Econometrics: A Time Series Approach. Macmillan, New York 2000.
• Perron, P., The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis, "Econometrica", 57(6), pp. 1361-1401, 1989.
• Perron, P., Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables, "Journal of Econometrics", 80(2), pp. 355-385, 1997.
• Phillips, P., Perron, P., Testing for Unit Root in the Time Series Regression, "Biometrika", 75(2), pp. 335-346, 1988.
• Rosen, H., Gayer, T., Public Finance. McGraw Hill, Boston 2008.
• Sari, R., Soytas, U., Disaggregate Energy Consumption, Employment and Income in Turkey, "Energy Economics", 26(3), pp. 335-344, 2004.
• Sari, R., Soytas, U., The Growth of Income and Energy Consuption in Six Developing Countries, "Energy Policy", 35(2), pp. 889-898, 2007.
• Shiu, A., Lam, L. P., Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in China, "Energy Policy", 32(1), pp. 47-54, 2004.
• Soyta§, U., Sari, R., Energy Consumption and GDP: Causality Relationship in G-7 Countries and Emerging Markets, "Energy Economics", 25(1), pp. 33-37, 2003.
• Soyta§, U., Sari, R., The Relationship between Energy and Production Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry, "Energy Policy", 29(6), pp. 1151-1165, 2007.
• Stern, D. I., Energy and Growth in the USA: A Multivariate Approach, "Energy Economics", 15(2), pp. 137-150, 1993.
• Stern, D. I., A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the Role of Energy in the US Macroeconomy, "Energy Economics", 22(2), pp. 267-283, 2000.
• §engul, S., Tuncer, I., Turkiye'de Enerji Tuketimi ve Ekonomik Buyume:1960-2000, "Iktisat I^letme ve Finans", 21, pp. 69-80, 2006.
• TEA§, Electricity Statistics, (For Different Years)
• TEDA§, Electricity Statistics, (For Different Years)
• TEK, Electricity Statistics, (For Different Years)
• Thoresen, P. E., Impact of Energy Price Rises on Costs A Thermodynamic Analysis, "Energy Policy", 9(3), pp. 145-152, 1981.
• Yilmaz,A. O., Uslu, T., The Role of Coal in Energy Production: Consumption and Sustainable Development of Turkey, "Energy Policy", 35, pp. 1117-1128, 2007.
• Viscusi, W. K., Vernon, J. M., Harrington, J. E., Economics of Regulation and Antitrust. MIT Press, Cambridge 2000.
• Yoo, S. H., Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Korea, "Energy Policy", 33(12), pp. 1627-1632, 2005.
• Yoo, S. H., The Causal Relationship between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in the ASEAN Countries, "Energy Policy", 34(18), pp. 3573-3582, 2006.
• Yu, E., Hwang, B., The Relationship between Energy and GNP: Further Results, Energy Economics, 6(3), pp. 186-190, 1984.
• Zachariadis, T., Exploring the Relationship between Energy Use and Economic Growth with Bivariate Models: New Evidence from G-7 Countries, "Energy Economics", 29(6), pp. 1233-1253, 2007.
• Zivot, E., Andrews, D., Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis, "Journal of Business and Economic Statistics", 10(3), pp. 251-270, 1992.