Zjawisko uporczywości (inercyjności) inflacji w Polsce

• Autorzy: Piotr Misztal

Warianty tytułu

The Phenomenon of Inflation Persistence (Inertia) in Poland

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Celem artykułu jest analiza zjawiska uporczywości (inercyjności) inflacji w gospodarce Polski. Uporczywość inflacji oznacza silną dodatnią zależność między inflacją z bieżącego okresu i okresów poprzedzających. Powoduje to trudności w hamowaniu inflacji po okresie jej przyspieszonego wzrostu, a niezbędne dostosowania trwają dłużej i powodują większą zmienność produkcji i zatrudnienia. Analiza empiryczna oparta na zastosowaniu modelu wektorowej autoregresji - VAR potwierdziła występowanie w Polsce w okresie 1996-2012 stosunkowo wysokiej uporczywości (inercyjności) inflacji. Stopień uporczywości inflacji jest zróżnicowany w poszczególnych grupach towarów i usług uwzględnianych w obliczaniu ogólnego indeksu cen konsumpcyjnych. Największa inercyjność cen występuje w takich grupach towarowych jak napoje alkoholowe i wyroby tytoniowe oraz odzież i obuwie, zaś najniższa w przypadku usług komunikacyjnych. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The purpose of this study is to analyze the phenomenon of inflation persistence (inertia) in Poland. Inflation persistence is defined as a strong positive relationship between inflation in the current period and prior periods. This causes difficulties for monetary authorities to reduce inflation after its acceleration, and the necessary adjustments last longer and cause greater volatility in output and employment. The empirical analysis using the vector autoregression model (VAR) confirmed the presence in Poland of a relatively high inflation persistence in the period 1996-2012. The degree of inflation persistence was differentiated for individual groups of goods and services included in the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The highest price inertia occurred in the case of alcoholic beverages and tobacco products as well as clothing and footwear, and the lowest one was observed in communication services. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Inflacja; Modele ekonometryczne; Teoria inflacji; Analiza empiryczna; Zharmonizowany wskaźnik cen konsumpcyjnych

EN

Inflation; Econometric models; Inflation theory; Empirical analysis; Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)

• Czasopismo: Ekonomista
• Rocznik: 2014
• Numer: nr 3
• Strony: 397--417

Twórcy

autor

Piotr Misztal

• Uniwersytet Jana Kochanowskiego w Kielcach

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