Warianty tytułu
Application of Fuzziness in Business Forecasting
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
Forecasting the business situation is usually encumbered with a considerable risk of error. The risk is diminished by demarcation of a fuzzy set of trends. For forecasting within a certain interval increases the probability that the expected value will fall into the foreseen interval. Credibility of such a forecast is declining along with widening of the interval between the lower and upper trend ranges. The above method has been applied to forecast the situation in manufacturing and construction. The results for the first quarter of 1994 point to a considerable indefiniteness of the situation in food industry and in construction. This is i.a. a result of the high degree of dependence of those sectors upon the external factors. The forecasting method discussed in the article is submitted to some constraints, such as the assumption of linear additive relationships. When the relationships between the explanatory and explained variables are not linear the above method based on the notion of fuzziness proves abortive. (original abstract)
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Bibliografia
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
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Identyfikator YADDA
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