Modelling of Cycles in the Residential Real Estate Market

• Autorzy: Hanna Augustyniak , Jacek Łaszek , Krzysztof Olszewski , Joanna Waszczuk
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Analysing the real estate market, the authors focused on the modelling of short-term housing market, instead of a long-term residential space market. In this perspective, even a slight change in the factors affecting the real estate market, due to the multiplier effect leads to strong shocks on the demand side, and consequently, to an excessive reaction of the supply side. These shocks, depending on the demand and supply price elasticity, may disappear or explode. The article presents the modelling cycles in the real estate market. The analysis takes into account changes in prices and the number of dwellings on the primary and secondary market. As calculations indicate, in order to smooth the housing cycle the demand for housing should be mitigate, what can be achieved using fiscal policy, prudential regulation and housing policy - the authors suggest. (original abstract)

Analizując rynek nieruchomości, autorzy skupili się na modelowaniu krótkoterminowego rynku mieszkań, zamiast długoterminowej analizy rynku powierzchni mieszkaniowej. W takim ujęciu nawet drobna zmiana w czynnikach wpływających na rynek nieruchomości powoduje, ze względu na efekt mnożnikowy, że po stronie popytu występują silne wstrząsy, wywołujące nadmierną podaż. Wstrząsy te, w zależności od elastyczności cenowej popytu i podaży, mogą zanikać lub eksplodować. W artykule przedstawiono modelowanie cykli na rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych. W analizie uwzględniono zmiany cen i liczby mieszkań na rynku pierwotnym i wtórnym. Jak wynika z obliczeń, złagodzenie cyklu mieszkaniowego wymaga również łagodzenia popytu na mieszkania, co można osiągnąć - zdaniem autorów - za pomocą polityki fiskalnej, regulacji ostrożnościowych i polityki mieszkaniowej. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Real estate market; Fiscal policy; Housing policy

PL

Rynek nieruchomości; Polityka fiskalna; Polityka mieszkaniowa

• Czasopismo: Kwartalnik Nauk o Przedsiębiorstwie
• Rocznik: 2014
• Numer: nr 2
• Strony: 63--77

Twórcy

autor

Hanna Augustyniak

• Narodowy Bank Polski

autor

Jacek Łaszek

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie; Narodowy Bank Polski

autor

Krzysztof Olszewski

• Narodowy Bank Polski

autor

Joanna Waszczuk

• Narodowy Bank Polski

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