Forecasting Economic Crisis Using Gradient Measurement of Development and Log-Logistic Function

• Autorzy: Rafał Siedlecki , Daniel Papla
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper shows that regardless of how good the economic situation is, sooner or later certain difficulties will appear. Hence, the idea has emerged to give the analytical form to the logistic law based gradient measurement (synthetic measure) of selected financial data, which enables forecasting crises and economic downturns. The presented proposal of determining the economic cycle and the model of forecasting using the modified logistic function (log-logistic function) was tested with use of data regarding the Polish economy. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Economic crisis; Economic growth; Forecasting; Time-series analysis

PL

Kryzys gospodarczy; Wzrost gospodarczy; Prognozowanie; Analiza szeregów czasowych

• Czasopismo: Business and Economic Horizons
• Rocznik: 2013
• Numer: vol. 9, iss. 3
• Strony: 28--40

Twórcy

autor

Rafał Siedlecki

• Wrocław University of Economics, Poland

autor

Daniel Papla

• Wrocław University of Economics, Poland

Bibliografia

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.15208/beh.2013.11