Current-Account Imbalances and Economic Growth During the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis: an Empirical Analysis

• Autorzy: Rossitsa Rangelova
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This study examines the relationship between current-account imbalances and economic growth during the 2008-2009 financial and economic crisis for 179 countries (covered by IMF data) and within the EU-27 countries (covered by Eurostat data). The countries are divided into 4 groups by GDP per capita based on PPPs, namely, low income, lower middle-income, upper middle-income and high-income countries. Empirical analysis is applied, including descriptive statistics and regression estimates. Statistical data are used, including the average of the GDP growth rate in the years prior to the crisis (2003-2007), the average of the GDP growth rate for 2008 and 2009, current account as a percentage of GDP, and the level of average inflation. It is proved that, in general, the 2008-2009 crisis affected high- and upper middle-income countries more than poorer countries. Within the EU-27 countries, however, the crisis appears to have affected lower income countries more than higher income countries. A common tendency is observed for the two country samples: countries that experienced strong growth just prior to the crisis had an increased risk of suffering after the crisis. The boom prior to the crisis led to imbalances that rendered economies more vulnerable. Additionally, surpluses that existed prior to the crisis are an important risk factor for the two groups of countries. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Economic crisis; Transaction account; Economic growth; Empirical analysis

PL

Kryzys gospodarczy; Rachunek bieżący; Wzrost gospodarczy; Analiza empiryczna

• Czasopismo: Contemporary Economics
• Rocznik: 2014
• Tom: 8
• Numer: nr 2
• Strony: 123--136

Twórcy

autor

Rossitsa Rangelova

• Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria

Bibliografia

• Blanchard, O., Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (2009). Global Imbalances: In Midstream? International Monetary Fund. (Working Paper No. 09/29). International Monetary Fund.
• Dullien, S. (2010). Risk Factors in International Financial Crises: Early Lessons from the 2008-2009 Turmoil. In S. Dullien, D. J. Kotte, A. Márquez, J. Priewe (Eds.), The Financial and Economic Crisis of 2008-2009 and Developing Countries (pp. 99- 116). New York, NY: UNCTAD, United Nations.
• EUROSTAT (2014a). Real GDP growth rate - volume, Percentage change on previous year. Retrieved from http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00115.
• EUROSTAT (2014b). Balance of the current account, % of GDP. Retrieved from: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&language=en&pcode=tec00043.
• EUROSTAT (2014c). HICP - inflation rate. Annual average rate of change (%). Retrieved from: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00118.
• International Monetary Fund (2010). World Economic Outlook. (April 2010). Rebalancing Growth. Retrieved from https://www.sagia.gov.sa/Documents/Reports/world_Economic_Outlook_2010.pdf.
• Ocampo, J. A., Griffith-Jones, S., Noman, A., Ortiz, A., Vallejo, J., & Tyson, J. (2010). The Great Recession and the Developing World. Paper prepared for Conference on Development Cooperation in Times of Crisis and on Achieving the MDGs. IFEMA Convention Centre (Madrid), 9-10 June 2010. Retrieved from: http://www.stephanygj.net/papers/TheGreatRecessionandTheDevelopingWorld2010.pdf.
• Priewe, J. (2010). What Went Wrong? Alternative Interpretations of the Global Financial Crisis. In S. Dullien, D. J. Kotte, A. Márquez, J. Priewe (Eds.), The Financial and Economic Crisis of 2008-2009 and Developing Countries (pp.17-52). New York, NY: UNCTAD, United Nations.
• OECD (2012). Current account balance of payments as a percentage of GDP. Trade: Key tables from OECD. Retrieved from http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/trade/current-account-balance-of-payments_20743920-table5.
• World Bank (2014a). World Bank Data: Current account balance (% of GDP). Retrieved from: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS?page=1.
• World Bank (2014b). World Bank Data:GDP growth (annual %). Retrieved from: http://data.world-bank.org/indicator?NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/countries.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5709/ce.1897-9254.136