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2014 | 19 (XIX) | nr 21 (1) | 157--163
Tytuł artykułu

Modelirovanie riskov proektovavtomobil'nyh dorog

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Risk Simulation of Highways Projects
Języki publikacji
Pre-conditions and features of simulation of realization of highways projects for the estimation of risks are expound- ed. Two simulation-optimization models of estimation of backlogs offer on prevention and softening of risks, being based on the chart of the aggregative system, use of Monte Carlo method and genetic algorithm of search of optimal solution. Implementation of the project of the road - it is a complex, dynamic, stochastic process management, so the proposed simulation model has the appropriate algorithms and reproduces the managerial decision making process that lead to structural changes in the project and to changes in the parameters of the project work. Application of the concepts of the unit and aggregative systems can simulate the behavior of the different elements of a complex system with a unified point of using the same type of mathematical schemes and algorithms, which reduces the cost of their computer implementation. For the purpose of simulation of risks and minimization of their negative influence the phases of highway project were grouped in two parts: the stage of feasability study, research and planning, concordances and land acquisition and building (reconstructions) of road, and stage of exploitation of road. This separation is due to the different purposes of project management of construction and road maintenance, as well as the need to simulate the processes of degradation state of the road at the stage of its operation. The worked out simulation-optimization models and realizing them computer programs allow to estimate influence of risks on duration and cost of highways projects, to optimize the size of facilities on coverage of risks of participants of project, to provide a basis for the construction of research and information control system by the highways projects. (original abstract)
Opis fizyczny
  • National Technical University of Ukraine "Kyiv Polytechnic Institute"
  • Flyvbjerg, B., Holm, M. K. S., and Buhl, S. L. How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects? Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Ltd, UK, 2003, Vol. 23, No. 1, 71-88. Систем. требования: Adobe Reader URL: (дата обращения: 26.07.2013).
  • ГОСТ Р 51897-2011/Руководство ИСО 73:2009. МЕНЕДЖМЕНТ РИСКА. Термины и определения. ISO Guide 73:2009 Risk management - Vocabulary - Guidelines for use in standards (IDT). Москва, Стандартинформ,16с. URL: Систем. требования: Adobe Reader. (дата обращения: 26.07.2013).
  • Международный Стандарт ISO 31000. Первое издание, 2009-11-15. Риск Менеджмент - Принципы и руководства, ISO 2009, 32 с. URL: Систем. требования: Adobe Reader. (дата обращения: 27.07.2013).
  • Sato Y., Kitazume K., Miyamoto K. Quantitative Risk Analysis of Road Projects based on empirical data in Japan // Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 6, pp. 3971 - 3984, 2005.
  • Бусленко Н.П., Калашников В.В., Коваленко И.Н. Лекции по теории сложных систем. М., Изд-во «Советское радио», 1973, 440 с.
  • Діденко В.В. Імітаційна модель аналізу вартості життєвого циклу автомобільних доріг. // Автомобільні дороги і дорожнє будівництво. - Вип.81. - К.: НТУ. - 2011. - C. 76-81.
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