Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2014 | nr 5 | 407--432
Tytuł artykułu

The Quest for Determinants of Chinese Exchange Rate Policy

Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
This paper examines the decision function of the People's Bank of China concerning setting of the renminbi exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. We use an ordinal dependent variable model to check whether main macroeconomic variables and repeated complaints from U.S. institutions and officials about the Chinese exchange rate had an influence on the Chinese exchange rate policy in the period 2000-2011. The results of estimation show that GDP growth, trade balance and pressure from the U.S. on greater exchange rate flexibility had a positive impact on the probability of renminbi exchange rate appreciation. These findings suggest that the primary goal of the exchange rate policy in China is to support the export sector. This goal, however, is compromised by allowing the renminbi to appreciate under pressure from the U.S. Treasury. This suggests that in large open economies the exchange rate policy cannot be pursued regardless of its international ramifications.(original abstract)
Opis fizyczny
  • Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
  • Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
  • Credit Agricole Bank Polska
  • Corden M.W. (2009), China's exchange rate policy, its current account surplus and the global imbalances, The Economic Journal, 119(541), F430-F441.
  • Cline W.R., Williamson J. (2010), Estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington.
  • Cramer J.S. (2003), Logit models from economics and other fields, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Dunaway S., Leigh L., Li X. (2006), How robust are estimates of equilibrium real exchange rates: the case of China, Pacific Economic Review, 14(3), 361-375.
  • Dunaway S., Li X. (2005), Estimating China's "equilibrium" real exchange rate, IMF Working Paper, 05/202, Washington.
  • Fan G. (2008), Renminbi revaluation and US dollar depreciation, w: M. Goldstein, N.R. Lardy (eds.), Debating China's exchange rate policy, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington.
  • Frankel J. (2006), On the yuan: the choice between adjustment under a fixed exchange rate and adjustment under a flexible rate, in: G. Illing (ed.), Understanding the Chinese economy, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  • Frankel J. (2009), New estimation of China's exchange rate regime, NBER Working Paper, 14700, Washington.
  • Frankel J., Wei S.-J. (2007), Assessing China's exchange rate regime, NBER Working Paper, 13100, Washington.
  • Goldstein M., Lardy N. (2006), China's exchange rate policy dilemma, American Economic Review, 96(2), 422-426.
  • Griliches Y., Intriligator M.D. (1983), Handbook of econometrics, North-Holland, Amsterdam.
  • Liu X., Fan C. (2010), The model and empirical estimation of the optimal flexibility of RMB exchange- -rate regime: a study based on the price-stabilization, Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer, 5(2), 187-209.
  • MacKinnon J.G. (1996), Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 601-618.
  • McKinnon R. (2009), China's exchange rate policy and fiscal expansion, Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 2(2), 81-85.
  • McKinnon R., Schnabl G. (2006), China's exchange rate and international adjustment in wages, prices and interest rates: Japan deja vu? CESifo Economic Studies, 52, 276-303.
  • Maddala G.S. (1994), Limited-dependent and qualitative variables in econometrics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Rabinovitch S. (2011), China engineers Renminbi jump, Financial Times, 10 October.
  • Rubaszek M. (2004), A model of balance of payments equilibrium exchange rate, Eastern European Economics, 42(3), 5-22.
  • Sato K., Shimizu J., Shrestha N., Zhang Z. (2012), New estimates of the equilibrium exchange rate: the case for the Chinese Renminbi, The World Economy, 35(4), 419-443.
  • Soofi A.S. (2009), China's exchange rate policy and the United States' trade deficits, Journal of Economic Studies, 36(1), 36-65.
  • Spencer K. (2006), Reaction function of Bank of England MPC members: insiders versus outsiders, University of Surrey Discussion Papers in Economics, 06/06.
  • Stokes M.E., Davis C.S., Koch G.G. (2000), Categorical data analysis using the SAS system, SAS Institute, Cary.
  • Tyers R., Bain I., Bu Y. (2008), China's equilibrium real exchange rate: a counterfactual analysis, Pacific Economic Review, 13(1), 17-39.
  • Williamson J. (1994), Estimates of FEER, in: J. Williamson (ed.), Estimating equilibrium exchange rates, Institute for International Economics, Washington.
Typ dokumentu
Identyfikator YADDA

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Musisz być zalogowany aby pisać komentarze.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.