Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy

• Autorzy: Michał Brzoza-Brzezina , Jacek Kotłowski
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

This paper uses a restricted factor model to estimate the HICP index excluding relative prices changes. The index thus obtained, hereinafter referred to as pure inflation, demonstrates stronger relationship to the central bank instrument (short-term interest rate) than the HICP index and selected measures of core inflation. Pure inflation has also a forecasting performance for future HICP comparable or better than that of competing models. The estimated variable indicates a much weaker role of changes in relative prices in the recent period of rising inflation (2006-2008) than during previous inflation increases (1999-2000 and 2004-05). This may show that inflation was mainly driven by demand pressures in the years 2006-2008.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Inflation rate; Monetary policy; Prices; Demand; Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)

PL

Wskaźnik inflacji; Polityka pieniężna; Ceny; Popyt; Zharmonizowany wskaźnik cen konsumpcyjnych

• Czasopismo: Department of Applied Econometrics Working Papers
• Rocznik: 2009
• Numer: nr 3
• Strony: 23

Twórcy

autor

Michał Brzoza-Brzezina

autor

Jacek Kotłowski

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