The Concept of FTS Anylysis in Forecasting Trends of Exchange Rate Changes

• Autorzy: Ireneusz Miciuła
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The crisis in financial markets has contributed to a significant downturn in the global economy. Significant perturbations and high volatility have also been observed in the forex market. The purpose of this article is to determine which variables from the financial and commodity market affect the exchange rate changes. The article presents the concept of FTS analysis (Fundamental - Technical - Speculative) used to predict the direction of exchange rate changes. The author's FTS concept is a combination of two most popular forecasting methods and an attempt to add (parameterize) information on financial institutions' interventions in the forex market and generally understood speculations. The paper specifies explanatory variables and determines the nature of the occurring interdependencies. The FTS analysis allows for developing a computer system for decision support in the management of foreign exchange risk. At the same time, the paper draws attention to the complexity of the issue and shows possible directions for further research. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Forecasting; Econometric models; Exchange rates

PL

Prognozowanie; Modele ekonometryczne; Kurs walutowy

• Czasopismo: Economics & Sociology
• Rocznik: 2014
• Tom: 7
• Numer: nr 2
• Strony: 172--182

Twórcy

autor

Ireneusz Miciuła

• University of Szczecin, Poland

Bibliografia

• Adamska, A. (2004), The role and responsibilities of the CFO, Ed. OE, Cracow.
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• Batten, J., Mellor, R. and Wan, V. (1993), Foreign Exchange Risk Management Practices and Products used by Australian Firms, Journal of International Business Studies, Vol. 24, No. 3 (3rd Qtr.), Palgrave Macmillan Journals, pp. 557-573.
• Begg, D., Fischer, S., Dornbusch, R. (2007), Macroeconomics, Polish Economic Publishing House, p. 554.
• Błach, J. (2008), Financial Innovations and Their Role in the Modern Financial System

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.14254/2071-789X.2014/7-2/14