Long-term and Short-term Relationship Between Government Expenditure and GDP in the EU15: Cointegration Approach

• Autorzy: Irena Szarowská

Warianty tytułu

Długookresowa I krótkookresowa zależność między wydatkami państwa I PKB w krajach UE15: podejście kointegracyjne

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This article deals with development and trends of government expenditure in the core European Union member states (EU15) in the period 1995-2010. The aim is to provide direct empirical evidence on cyclicality and the long-term and short-term relationship between government expenditure and GDP. Adjusted annual Eurostat data of GDP and government expenditure in compliance with the COFOG international standard are estimated. The Johansen cointegration test and the error correction model (ECM) are applied to the estimation. Research confirms procyclical effects of government expenditure on GDP; it means that governments did not use government expenditure as a countercyclical fiscal tool. On the contrary, findings verify the existence of Wagner´s Law in the EU15 in the selected period. However, the results document significant differences in importance of public sector and a priority of government expenditure functions in individual countries. (original abstract)

Artykuł ten dotyczy cyklicznych wahań i tendencji rozwojowych (trendów) wydatków państwowych w "starych" krajach członkowskich Unii Europejskiej (UE15). Celem jest empiryczne zbadanie cyklicznych zmian tych wydatków oraz długo- i krótkookresowej relacji między wydatkami państwowymi a PKB. W analizie wykorzystano poprawione dane roczne o PKB i wydatkach państwowych publikowane przez Eurostat, zgodne z międzynarodowym systemem klasyfi kacji wydatków państwowych (COFOG). Podstawowym narzędziem analizy był test kointegracji Johansena i model korekty błędu (ECM). Badanie potwierdziło procykliczne oddziaływanie wydatków państwa na wielkość PKB. Oznacza to, że rządy nie wykorzystywały swych wydatków jako narzędzia antycyklicznej polityki fiskalnej. Przeciwnie, rezultaty analizy potwierdzają działanie prawa Wagnera w badanej grupie krajów we wskazanym okresie. Wyniki analizy ujawniają również istotne różnice w znaczeniu sektora publicznego oraz priorytetowych funkcjach wydatków państwowych w poszczególnych krajach. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Public expenditures; Gross domestic product (GDP); Cointegration; Procyclicality

PL

Wydatki publiczne; Produkt krajowy brutto (PKB); Kointegracja; Procykliczność

• Czasopismo: Ekonomista
• Rocznik: 2014
• Numer: nr 6
• Strony: 865--882

Twórcy

autor

Irena Szarowská

• Silesian University in Opava; School of Business Administration, Karvina

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