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1991 | nr 345 Usefulness of demographic modelling | 159--177
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Close migration directions under changing propensity

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It is a commonplace that the greatest unknown factor in demographic projections is migration. Although in the past several good approaches have been elaborated, still the progress seems to be slow. One of the reasons for this is that the macro-level analysis of the process is not sufficient to explain the complex character of migration. On the other hand, the disclosure of migration motivations requires time - and money - consuming research. Moreover, conclusions that can be drawn from such a study are important for short term mainly. The latter statement does not refer so such to the fact that the objectives and the value hierarchy are changing, but it can rather be attributed to the fact the set of objectives and their attainability are differentiated. A part of the people cannot realize their life objectives, whereas others have to follow compulsion paths in the interest of realizing the basic functions. Researchers face still more frequently the problem that individuals summarize various failures and events in the course of their life, which basically determines their value evaluation. The historical continuity of the so called biographical bearer is strong and exerting influence on it is much more difficult than changing the external circumstances. In East European countries still the majority of people consider migration to be the quickest channel of social mobility. They expressed their conviction that the movement into development poles is much more expedient than waiting for the development to be realized on the spot.(fragment of text)
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