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2012 | 13 | nr 2 | 387--404
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Forecasting of Migration Matrices in Business

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This paper demonstrates that the forecast of migration matrices can be conducted by means of updating procedures, well-known in the I-O theory. The authors use some of the most popular I-O updating procedures (RAS and some non-biproportional approaches) and calculate measures of the ex-post error of predictions. While taking into account the measures of distance between two matrices, a ranking of forecasting methods of migration matrices (forecast horizon one) is established. Finally, the advantages and drawbacks of particular forecasting methods with respect to one-step ex-post forecasts of migration matrices are discussed. (original abstract)
Opis fizyczny
  • AGH University of Science and Technology Kraków, Poland
  • AGH University of Science and Technology Kraków, Poland
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