Mnożnik fiskalny: reaktywacja?

• Autorzy: Marek Lubiński

Warianty tytułu

Fiscal multiplier reloaded

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Celem artykułu jest przedyskutowanie istniejących między ekonomistami kontrowersji wokół mnożnika fiskalnego. W tym celu dokonano obszernego przeglądu najnowszej literatury teoretycznej i empirycznej. Globalny kryzys finansowy doprowadził do ponownego zainteresowania dyskrecjonalnymi bodźcami fiskalnymi. Potrzeba ekspansji fiskalnej była szczególnie silna ze względu na spadek do zera krótkookresowych wolnych od ryzyka stóp procentowych. Zwolennicy dyskrecjonalnej interwencji fiskalnej podkreślali, że wydatki państwa mogą pobudzać, poprzez mnożnikowe efekty keynesowskie, dodatkowe wydatki prywatne. Dlatego znaczna część dyskursu ekonomicznego na temat pakietów fiskalnych skoncentrowała się wokół wielkości mnożników wydatków rządowych. Mnożniki wydatków rządowych w modelach nowej ekonomii keynesowskiej są niższe aniżeli w modelach tradycyjnych. Z literatury empirycznej wynika, że wprawdzie mnożniki fiskalne w większości przypadków są dodatnie, to jednak na ogół przybierają stosunkowo niskie wartości. Istnieją również dowody na występowanie ujemnych mnożników fiskalnych. Wpływ szoków fiskalnych na gospodarkę zależy od wielu czynników, takich jak stopień wykorzystania czynników produkcji, reżim kursowy, stopień otwarcia gospodarki, zadłużenie państwa, zachowania gospodarstw domowych oraz skala wypierania. Ponadto efekty polityki fiskalnej są nieliniowe. Dlatego mnożnik fiskalny jest niepewną przesłanką dla polityki stabilizacyjnej. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The article addresses a long-standing debate among economists over what is known as the fiscal multiplier effect. The author reviews a body of recent theoretical and empirical literature on the subject. The latest global financial crisis has led to a renewed interest in the role of discretionary fiscal stimuli, Lubiński says. He adds that the need for fiscal expansion was particularly acute because monetary policy had driven nominal short-term interest rates down to zero without heading off the contraction. Advocates of discretionary measures argue that government spending can stimulate additional private spending, producing the Keynesian multiplier effect, the author notes. Much of the recent economic debate on the impact of stimulus packages has focused on the size of the government fiscal multiplier, according to Lubiński. Government spending multipliers in the empirically-estimated and widely-cited new Keynesian model are much smaller than in old Keynesian models, the author says. Because of uncertainty, he adds, it is essential that policy evaluations are robust to alternative assumptions. Studies suggest that fiscal multipliers are typically positive but small, and while there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers, there is no clear consensus on the preconditions for such an outcome. The impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of capacity utilization, the exchange rate regime, openness to trade, public indebtedness, household behavior, and the crowding-out effect. Moreover, the effects of fiscal packages are nonlinear, Lubiński notes. As a result, the fiscal multiplier is an uncertain guideline for stabilization policy, the author concludes. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Polityka stabilizacyjna; Analiza mnożnikowa; Recesja gospodarcza; Mnożnik fiskalny; Wydatki państwa

EN

Stabilisation policy; Multiplier analysis; Economic recession; Fiscal multiplier; Government spending

• Czasopismo: Gospodarka Narodowa
• Rocznik: 2015
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 5--26

Twórcy

autor

Marek Lubiński

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie

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