Unobserved Variables as Indicators of Recession in Poland and Ukraine

• Autorzy: Jakub Gazda , Bartosz Godziszewski
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The main aim of the paper is to present crisis trends in business cycles for Polish and Ukrainian economies at the turn of the XX and XXI century using unobserved variables method. The aim of the research is to analyze empirical tests for deviations from trend estimated using Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter. The results achieved can be interpreted both - as GDP (gross domestic product) gap and, when RBC attitude is applied, as cyclical component of time series. Moreover, authors made an attempt to find relationships between simple observations of economy and changes of unobserved variable. Research for Polish and Ukrainian Economies was conducted for the period from I Q 1995 to III Q 2010. Problem of going through economic slowdown is very important due to the fact that neither economics theory nor policy propose effective solution for stable sustainable development. The article provides some general conclusions stemming from analysis of Polish and Ukrainian economies on the centuries breakthrough, it can be also treated as guidepost useful in the modeling and deep explaining of recession trends. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Economic situation; Business cycles; Demand gap; Real business cycle theory

PL

Sytuacja gospodarcza; Cykl koniunkturalny; Luka popytowa; Teoria realnego cyklu koniunkturalnego

• Czasopismo: Economics & Sociology
• Rocznik: 2011
• Tom: 4
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 26--32

Twórcy

autor

Jakub Gazda

• Poznań University of Economics, Poland

autor

Bartosz Godziszewski

• Poznan University of Technology, Poland

Bibliografia

• Economic and monetary developments and prospects. Improved inflation outlook if the króna stays strong, "Monetary Bulletin", The Central Bank of Iceland, 1, March 2005.
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• Gazda, J., Godziszewski, B. (2006), Próba identyfikacji tendencji recesyjnych w gospodarce polskiej na podstawie zmian luki PKB, (in): Funkcjonowanie współczesnych gospodarek i przedsiębiorstw: aspekty globalne, regionalne, sektorowe, ed. Małgorzata Kokocińska, Wydawnictwo AE Poznań, Poznań.
• Gomez, V. (2001), The Use of Butterworth Filters for Trend and Cycle Estimation in Economic Time Series, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19(3).
• Hodrick, R. J., Prescott, E.C. (1997), Postwar US business cycles: An empirical investigation, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), February, 1997.
• IMF Country Report (2008), No. 08/228.
• IMF Country Report (2010), No. 10/262.
• Kaiser, R., Maraval, A. (1999), Estimation of the Business Cycle: A Modified Hodrick-Prescott Filter, Spanish Economic Review, 1(2).
• Mills, T.C. (2003), Modelling Trends and Cycles in Economic Time Series, Palgrave Macmillan.
• Polyvana, T. (2010), International and Domestic Policy Responses to the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe: Lessons for Ukraine, Romanian Journal of Political science, 10(1).
• Prescott, E.C. (1986), Theory ahead of business cycle measurement, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Fall.
• Schenk-Hoppe, K.R. (2001), Economic Growth and Business Cycles: A Critical Comment on Detrending Time Series, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 5(1).
• Wośko, Z. (2009), Czy filtry liniowe są przydatnym narzędziem badania koniunktury? Analiza spektralna na przykładzie ankietowych wskaźników koniunktury, Ed. Joanna Czech-Rogosz, Jacek Pietrucha, Rafał Żelazny, Koniunktura Gospodarcza, C.H. Beck, Warszawa.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.14254/2071-789X.2011/4-1/3