PL EN


Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2014 | nr 2(2) | 116--150
Tytuł artykułu

Feedback to the ECB's Monetary Analysis: The Bank of Russia's Experience with Some Key Tools

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The paper investigates to what extent some basic tools of the ECBs monetary analysis can be useful for other central banks given their specific institutional, economic and financial environment. We take the case of the Bank of Russia in order to show how to adjust methods and techniques of monetary analysis for an economy that differs from the euro area as regards, for instance, the role of the exchange rate, the impact of dollarization and the functioning of sovereign wealth funds. A special focus of the analysis is the estimation of money demand functions for different monetary aggregates. The results suggest that there are stable relationships with respect to income and wealth and to a lesser extent to uncertainty variables and opportunity costs. Furthermore, the analysis also delivers preliminary results of the information content of money for inflation and for real economic development. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
116--150
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • Bank of Russia
  • Bank of Russia
  • Deutsche Bundesbank
Bibliografia
  • Andrews DWK. (1991) Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation, Econometrica, 59, pp. 817-858
  • Bank of England (2008) Money, credit and deleveraging, Inflation Report, August, p. 16
  • Benati L. (2009) Long-run evidence on money growth and inflation, Working Paper Series, No. 1027, ECB
  • Beyer A. (2009) A stable model for euro area money demand: revisiting the role of wealth, Working Paper Series, No. 1111, ECB
  • Brand C., Reimers H.-E., Seitz, F. (2003) Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money? Working Paper Series, No. 254, ECB
  • Brüggemann R., Lütkepohl H. (2005) Practical problems with reduced-rank ML estimators for cointegration parameters and a simple alternative. Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics 67, pp. 673-690. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-9442.2005.00136.x
  • De Bondt G.J. (2009) Euro area money demand: empirical evidence on the role of equity and labour markets, Working Paper Series, No. 1086, ECB
  • De Grauwe P., Polan M. (2005) Is inflation always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon? Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 107(2), pp. 239-259. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-0084.2005.00406.x
  • Diebold F., Mariano R. (1995) Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business and Economics Statistics 13, pp.253-263.
  • Dreger C., Reimers H.-E., Roffia, B. (2007) Long-run money demand in the new EU Member States with exchange rate effects, Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(2), pp. 75-94. DOI: 10.2753/EEE0012-8775450204
  • ECB (2008) The informational content of real M1 growth for real GDP growth in the euro area, Monthly Bulletin, October, pp. 16-18
  • Gerdesmeier D., Reimers H.-E., Roffia B. (2010) Asset price misalignments and the role of money and credit, International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pp. 377-407. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2362.2010.01272.x
  • Ghosh A., Christofides C., Kim J., Papi L., Ramakrishnan U., Thomas A., Zalduendo J. (2005) The Design of IMF-Supported Programs, IMF Occasional paper 241
  • Greiber C., Lemke W. (2005) Money demand and macroeconomic uncertainty, Discussion Paper Series, No. 26, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Greiber C., Setzer R. (2007) Money and housing: evidence for the euro area and the US, Discussion Paper Series, No.12, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Fischer B., Lenza M., Pill H., Reichli, L. (2008) Money and monetary policy - the ECB experience 1999-2006, in Beyer, A. and Reichlin, L. (eds.) The role of money - money and monetary policy in the 21st century, ECB, Frankfurt am Main, pp. 102-175
  • Hansen H., Johansen S. (1999) Some Tests for Parameter Constancy in Cointegrated VAR models, Econometrics Journal 2, pp. 306-333. DOI:10.1111/1368-423X.00035
  • Hofmann B. (2008) Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation? Working Paper Series, No. 867, ECB
  • Johansen S. (1996) Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models", 2nd ed., Oxford: Oxford University Press
  • Kim B.-Y. (1999) The Income, Savings, and Monetary Overhang of Soviet Households, Journal of Comparative Economics, Volume 27, Issue 4, December, pp. 644-668. DOI: 10.1006/jcec.1999.1614
  • Nicoletti-Altimari S. (2001) Does money lead inflation in the euro area, Working Paper Series, No. 63, ECB.
  • Korhonen I., Mehrotra A. (2010) Money demand in post-crisis Russia: De-dollarisation and re-monetisation, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 46 (2), pp. 5-19.
  • Lanne M., Lütkepohl H., Saikkonen P. (2002) Comparison of unit root tests for time series with shifts, Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 23, pp. 667-685. DOI: 10.1016/S0165-1765(01)00593-6
  • Mehrotra A., Ponomarenko A. (2010) Wealth effects and Russian money demand, Discussion Paper Series, No. 13, BOFIT
  • Oomes N., Dynnikova O. (2006) The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating? IMF WP/06/68
  • Oomes N., Ohnsorge F. (2005) Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia, Journal of Comparative Economics, 33(3), pp. 462-483. DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2005.05.007
  • Özdemir K.A., Saygili M. (2010) Economic Uncertainty and Money Demand Stability in Turkey, Working Paper Series, No. 10/15, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
  • Papademos L.D., Stark J. (2010) Enhancing Monetary Analysis, European Central Bank
  • Phillips P.C.B., Hansen B. E. (1990) Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes, Review of Economic Studies 57, pp. 99-125
  • Ponomarenko A., Solovyeva A., Vasilieva E. (2013) Financial dollarization in Russia: causes and consequences, Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Volume 6, Issue 2, pp. 221-243. DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2012.732099
  • Rautava J. (2009) A forecasting model for Russia's economy. BOFIT Online No. 10
  • Rolnick A.J., Weber W.E. (1997) Money, inflation, and output under fiat and commodity standards, Journal of Political Economy, 105(6), pp. 1308-1321
  • Seitz F., von Landesberger J. (2010) Household money holdings in the euro area: an explorative investigation, Working Paper Series, No. 1238, ECB
  • Stock J.H., Watson M. (1999) Forecasting inflation, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 44, pp. 293-335. DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(99)00027-6
  • Ulyukaev A. (2011) Izmeneniya v politike Tsentralnogo banka RF, Ekonomicheskaya politika No 3, pp. 19-24 (in Russian)
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171351717

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Musisz być zalogowany aby pisać komentarze.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.