Dette publique et croissance en Europe: le rolé des institutions

• Autorzy: Isabelle Cadoret , Nathalie Payelle , Sébastien Pommier

Warianty tytułu

Public Debt and Growth in Europe: The Role of Institutions

• Języki publikacji: FR

Abstrakty

Cet article examine l'eff et de la dette publique sur la croissance du PIB par tête en longue période, dans une «Union Européenne élargie» à 32 pays, sur la période 1994-2011. Il s'intéresse plus précisément à la spécifi cation de la relation non linéaire dette publique - croissance: quel y est le rôle joué par les facteurs institutionnels, et celui tenu parla trajectoire de la dette? Les principaux résultats sont: (1) sans prise en compte des variables institutionnelles, un eff et de seuil d'endettement est sensible à partir d'un ratio dette sur PIB compris entre 60% pour les pays hors zone euro et 70% pour les pays de la zone euro; (2) Les eff ets de la trajectoire de la dette apparaissent plus importants que les eff ets du niveau d'endettement; (3) la prise en compte des autres variables institutionnelles comme la qualité des institutions et l'origine légale du droit induit une modifi cation plus importante de la nature de la relation dette - croissance: l'eff et (négatif) de la trajectoire de la dette sur la croissance est amorti parla qualité de la gouvernance publique; (4) cet impact négatif de l'évolution de l'endettement sur la croissance n'est sensible que dans les systèmes juridiques d'origine française et socialiste.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

This paper investigates the impact of public debt on the long-term growth of GDP per-capita in an «enlarged European Union» of 32 countries, over a period of 18 years starting in 1994. More precisely, it focuses on the non-linear relationship between debt and growth and the extent to which both the quality of institutions and the debt trajectory, in addition to its level, may modify the impact of debt on growth. Our main results are: (1) when no country specific factors are taken into account, the negative growth effect of indebtedness is reinforced as the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds approximately 60% in countries outside the Euro Area, and 70% within the Euro area; (2) growth effects for debt trajectory seem larger than those for debt level; (3) country specific factors such as the quality of institutions and the origin of legal systems, modify the debt to growth relationship: the debt trajectory, and not only its level, significantly and negatively affects economic growth. The quality of institutions dampens this effect; (4) this negative effect is relevant only in countries whose legal systems have French or socialist roots.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Public debt; Economic growth; Institutions

PL

Dług publiczny; Wzrost gospodarczy; Instytucje

• Czasopismo: Studia Oeconomica Posnaniensia
• Rocznik: 2014
• Tom: 2
• Numer: nr 12
• Strony: 96--120

Twórcy

autor

Isabelle Cadoret

autor

Nathalie Payelle

autor

Sébastien Pommier

Bibliografia

• Aghion, P., Kharroubi, E., 2008, Cyclical Macro Policy and Industry Growth: the Effect of Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy, International Monetary Fund, On the Consequences and Consequences of Structural Reforms, February 28-29.
• Afonso, A., Jalles, J.T., 2013, Growth and Productivity: The role of Government Debt, International Review of Economics and Finance, no. 25, pp. 384-407.
• Alesina, A., Perotti, R., 1996, Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Eff ects, NBER, Working Paper 5730.
• Banque Centrale Européenne 2012, Analyse de la soutenabilité de la dette publique dans la zone euro, Bulletin mensuel, avril, pp. 55-70.
• Baum, A., Checherita-Westphal, C., Rother, P., 2013, Debt and Growth: New Evidence for the Euro Area, Journal of International Money and Finance, no. 32, pp. 809-821.
• Berti, K., Salto, M., Lequien, M., 2012, An Early-detection Index of Fiscal Stress for EU Countries, European Commission, European Economy, Economic Papers, 475, December.
• Checherita-Westphal, C., Rother, P., 2012, The Impact of High Government Debt on Economic Growth and Its Channels: an Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area, European Economic Review, no. 56, pp. 1392-1405.
• Cochrane, J.H., 2011a, Inflation and Debt, National Affairs, no. 9, pp. 56-78.
• Cochrane, J.H., 2011b, Understanding Policy in the Great Recession: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic, European Economic Review, no. 55(1), pp. 2-30.
• Dreger, C., Reimers, H.E., 2013, Does Euro Area Membership Affect the Relation Between GDP Growth and Public Debt?, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 38, Part B, December, pp. 481-486.
• Eberhardt, M., Presbitero, A.F., 2013, This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship between Debt and Growth, IMF Working Paper, WP/13/248, November.
• European Commission 2014a, The 2014 Stability and Convergence Programmes: an Overview, European Economy, Occasional Papers, 199, July.
• European Commission 2014b, Assessing Public Debt Sustainability in EU Member States: A Guide, European Economy, Occasional Papers, 200, September.
• Fincke, B., Greiner, A., 2012, How to Assess Debt Sustainability? Some Theory and Empirical Evidence for Selected Euro Area Countries, Applied Economics, no. 44, pp. 3717-3724.
• Giammarioli, N., Nickel, C., Rother, P., Vidal, J.-P., 2007, Assessing Fiscal Soundness. Theory and Practice, European Central Bank, Occasional Paper Series, no. 56, March.
• Jalles, J.T., 2011, The Impact of Democracy and Corruption on the Debt-growth Relationship in Developing Countries, Journal of Economic Development, vol. 36, no. 4, December, pp. 41-71.
• Kourtellos, A., Stengos, T., Tan, C.M., 2013, The Effect on Public Debt on Growth in Multiple Regimes, Journal of Macroeconomics, no. 38, pp. 35-43.
• Kumar, M.S., Woo, J. 2010, Public Debt and Growth, IMF Working Paper, July, WP/10/174.
• La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A., 1999, Corporate Ownership around the World, The Journal of Finance, no. 54, pp. 471-518.
• La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A., 2008, The Economic Consequences of Legal Origins, Journal of Economic Literature, no. 46, pp. 285-322.
• Levine, R. 2002, Bank-based or Market-based Financial Systems: Which Is Better, Journal of Financial Intermediation, vol. 11, pp. 398-428.
• Levine, R., Loayza, N., Beck, T. 2000, Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes, Journal of Monetary Economics, no. 46, pp. 31-77.
• Mauro, P., 1995, Corruption and Growth, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, August, pp. 695-712.
• North, D.C., 1981, Structure and Change in Economic History, W.W. Norton & Company, New York.
• North, D.C., 1990, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance, Cambridge University Press, New York.
• Panizza, U., Presbitero, A.F., 2012, Public Debt and Economic Growth: Is There a Causal Effect?, Working Paper, April, no. 2.
• Panizza, U., Presbitero, A.F., 2013, Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: a Survey, Money and Finance Research Group (MoFiR) Working Paper, no. 78, January.
• Prescatori, A., Sandri D., Simon, J., 2014, Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold?, IMF Working Paper, WP/14/34, February.
• Reinhart, C.M., Rogoff , K.S., Savastano, M.A., 2003, Debt Intolerance, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 1, pp. 1-62.
• Reinhart, C.M., Rogoff , K.S., 2009, The Aftermath of Financial Crises, The American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, no. 99:2, pp. 466-472.
• Reinhart, C.M., Rogoff , K.S., 2010, Growth in a Time of Debt, The American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, 100, May, pp. 573-578.
• Reinhart, C.M., Reinhart, V.R., Rogoff , K.S., 2012, Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 26, no. 3, Summer, pp. 69-86.
• Sargent, T.J., Wallace, N., 1981, Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, no. 5(3, Fall), pp. 1-17.
• Trehan, B., Walsh, C.E., 1991, Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to US Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, no. 23, pp. 206-23.
• Xu, G., 2011, The Role of Law in Economic Growth: a Literature Review, Journal of Economic Surveys, vol. 25, no. 5, pp. 833-871.