FDI in Poland: Determinants and Implications for Countries in Transition
Author This paper examines the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Poland and the Polish FDI experience since economic transition to a market economy began in late 1989 and some policy implications for similar economies. Using the ARIMA regression methodology, with a one year auto regressive lag for the independent variables, the model tested the dependency of FDI in Poland to a number of macroeconomic variables for the period 1991 to 2006. This paper validates the positive linkage between market size and FDI in Poland. In addition, other factors i.e. exchange rate, corporate taxes, and accession to the European Union were found to be significant determinants. However, both the variables associated with openness to trade and rising wages were not significant determinants. This paper suggests that macroeconomic performance, the relative strength of the US dollar and regional economic integration are important factors in attractiveness of FDI in host countries. Additionally, existing tax rates may impact FDI, but experience and data suggest that foreign investors with long term planning horizons are attracted by expected future profitability and future rate declines. From a firm's perspective, this paper suggests that the additional risks of market entry via FDI are acceptable to decision makers when the host economy is growing and committed to economic liberalization, market determined currency valuation and regional integration, while labour costs per se are not significant barriers to FDI. The successful economic transformation and the ensuing positive experience of foreign investors in Poland provide evidence and confirmation that significant FDI opportunities may be realized in similar transition economies. (original abstract)
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