Extreme Value Modeling of the Maximum Temperature : A Case Study of Humid Subtropical Monsoon Region in India
This experiment is sought to identify and fit the generalized extreme value distribution for extreme maximum temperature data of Ranchi by using the method of maximum likelihood. Ranchi District is located in Humid SubTropical Monsoon Region in Jharkhand state in India. To examine the uncertainty of estimated parameters Q-Q plot and goodness of fit (K-S test) criteria were applied. The study revealed that three parameter Generalized Extreme Value Distribution fitted very well to the data. The estimates of 10, 50, 100 and 200 years return level for yearly extreme maximum temperature are described in that how they vary in future. Further, Exponential Smoothing technique is also applied to capture the trend of extreme maximum temperature in which the residuals fulfilled their assumptions, i.e. randomness and normality. (original abstract)
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