"Slice-Of-Life" Customization of Bankruptcy Models: Belarusian Experience and Future development

• Autorzy: Yury Y. Karaleu

Warianty tytułu

Podejście "Slice-Of-Life" do dostosowania modeli upadłościowych na Białorusi.

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

After the recent financial crisis commencing in 2007, bankruptcy prediction has become a major concern and, as a result, today we have lots of different approaches to the bankruptcy prediction models but all of them full of limitations. Because of this (and not only) neither the Altman models nor other more recent models (partitioning algorithm, survival analysis, expert systems, neural networks, etc.) are recommended for use with financial companies. In order to overcome these limitations in modern Belarusian practice suffering from a lack of developed bankruptcy theory it is not enough to transfer foreign practice automatically to the reality of its national evolving economic conditions. This study attempts to show how a "Slice-Of-Life" approach, based on national circumstances and priorities, can be used to improve the temporal stability of the accuracy of a financial failure models for Belarusian companies(original abstract)

Po ostatnim kryzysie finansowym rozpoczętym w 2007 r. przewidywanie bankructwa stało się poważnym problemem i, w rezultacie, dziś mamy wiele różnych podejść do modeli przewidywania upadłości, ale wszystkie z nich pełne ograniczeń. W związku z tym (i nie tylko), ani model Altmana, ani nowsze modele (algorytm podziału, analiza przeżycia, systemy eksperckie, sieci neuronowe itd.) nie są zalecane do użytku w firmach sektora finansowego. W celu przezwyciężenia tych ograniczeń w nowoczesnej praktyce białoruskiej cierpiącej z powodu braku rozwiniętej teorii upadłości nie wystarczy przenieść praktykę zagraniczną automatycznie do rzeczywistości ewoluujących warunków gospodarczych Bałorusi. Autor próbuje pokazać, jak podejście "Slice-Of-Life", oparte na warunkach i priorytetach krajowych, może być wykorzystane do poprawy stabilności czasowej dokładności modeli niewydolności finansowej dla białoruskich przedsiębiorstw(abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Survival analysis

PL

Analiza przeżycia

• Czasopismo: Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
• Rocznik: 2015
• Numer: nr 381 Financial Investments and Insurance - Global Trends and the Polish Market
• Strony: 115--131

Twórcy

autor

Yury Y. Karaleu

• Międzynarodowy Uniwersytet MITSO w Mińsku, Belarus

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.15611/pn.2015.381.09