Expectations Formation and Endogenous Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand

• Autorzy: Maciej K. Dudek
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper recognizes that expectations and the process of their formation are subject to standard decision making and are determined as a part of equilibrium. Accordingly, the paper presents a basic framework in which the form of expectation formation is a choice variable. At any point in time rational economic agents decide on the basis of the level of utility what expectation formation technology to use and as a consequence what expectations to hold. As economic decisions are conditioned on expectations holding proper or rational expectations eliminates the possibility of ex ante inefficiencies. The choice of expectation formation technology is not trivial as the paper assumes that information gathering and processing are costly. Consequently, economic agents must make informed decisions with the regard to the quality of expectation formation technologies they wish to use. The paper shows that agents' optimization over expectations not only adds on to realism, but also can carry non trivial implications for the behavior of macroeconomic variables. Specifically, the paper illustrates that endogenous expectation revisions can be a source of permanent oscillations in aggregate demand and can prevent an economy from settling into a steady state. In addition, the paper quantifies intangible notions such as overheating, over borrowing, and output gap. Finally, the paper shows that active policy measures can limit inefficiencies resulting from output fluctuations.(original abstract)

Autor zauważa, że oczekiwania oraz proces formowania oczekiwań jest podmiotem standardowego procesu podejmowania decyzji i jest determinowany jako część równowagi. Przedstawia prosty model, w którym proces formowania oczekiwań jest zmienną wyboru. W dowolnym punkcie w czasie podmioty racjonalnie decydują, maksymalizując oczekiwaną użyteczność i decydują się na użycie odpowiedniej technologii formowania oczekiwań. Wybór technologii formowania oczekiwań jest nietrywialny gdyż w artykule zakłada się, iż zbieranie oraz przetwarzanie informacji jest kosztowne. W konsekwencji podmioty muszą podejmować decyzje odnośnie do jakości technologii formowania oczekiwań. Artykuł pokazuje, że optymalizacja względem technologii formowania oczekiwań nie tylko zbliża model do rzeczywistości, ale także prowadzi do nietrywialnego wpływu na zachowanie się zmiennych makroekonomicznych. W szczególności endogeniczna optymalizacja względem technologii formowania oczekiwań może być źródłem permanentnych oscylacji w zagregowanym popycie i może uniemożliwiać osiągnięcie stanu ustalonego. Dodatkowo zdefiniowane są pojęcia takie jak: przegrzewanie, nadmierny optymizm, I luka popytowa. Ponadto z artykułu wynika, iż aktywna polityka może poprawić dobrobyt.(abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Decision making; Business cycles; Information processing

PL

Podejmowanie decyzji; Cykl koniunkturalny; Przetwarzanie informacji

• Czasopismo: Studia Ekonomiczne / Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Nauk Ekonomicznych
• Rocznik: 2009
• Numer: nr 1-2 (60-61)
• Strony: 7--41

Twórcy

autor

Maciej K. Dudek

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie

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