Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2015 | nr 2(4) | 64--90
Tytuł artykułu

Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similiar to the 2001-02 Argentine Crisis

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
The 2001-02 Argentine crisis had a profound impact on Uruguay's economy. Uruguay's gross domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent, and the proportion of people living below the poverty line doubled in only two years. It took almost 10 years for the poverty rate to recover to its precrisis level. This paper uses a macro-micro simulation technique to simulate the impact of a similar crisis on the current Uruguayan economy. The simulation exercise suggests that Uruguay would now be in a better place to weather such a severe crisis. The impact on poverty would be considerably more moderate; inequality would not change significantly; and household incomes would be 8 percent lower than in the absence of a crisis (almost 9 percent lower among households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution). The paper also explores the changes in social welfare policy that took place in the last decade that are protecting vulnerable groups from new macroeconomic shocks. We find that, despite the new policies, young individuals, woman-headed households, residents of Montevideo, and people who have not completed secondary education are more vulnerable to falling into poverty were the crisis to strike. (original abstract)
Opis fizyczny
  • University of California, Davis, USA
  • The World Bank
  • The World Bank
  • The World Bank
  • The World Bank
  • Amarante, Verónica, and Andrea Vigorito. 2012. "The Expansion of Non-Contributory Transfers in Uruguay in Recent Years." Policy Research Brief 29, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth, Brasília, Brazil.
  • Bourguignon, François, Maurizio Bussolo, and Luiz A. Pereira da Silva. 2008. "Introduction: Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution." In The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution: Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques and Tools, edited by François Bourguignon, Maurizio Bussolo, and Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 1-23. Washington, DC: World Bank; New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Cotlear, Daniel, ed. 2011. Population Aging: Is Latin America Ready? Report 58842. Directions in Development: Human Development. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8487-9.
  • Datt, Gaurav and Martin Ravallion. 1992. "Growth and Redistribution Components of Changes in Poverty Measures: A Decomposition with Applications to Brazil and India in the 1980s." Journal of Development Economics38(2): 275-95. doi:10.1016/0304-3878(92)90001-P.
  • de Janvry, Alain, Elisabeth Sadoulet, and Renos Vakis. 2010. "Protecting Vulnerable Children from Uninsured Risks: Adapting Conditional Cash Transfer Programs to Provide Broader Safety Nets." Well-being and Social Policy6 (1): 161-83.
  • Estrades, Carmen, and Cecilia LLambí. 2013. "Lessons from the 2008 Financial Crisis: Policy Responses to External Shocks in Uruguay." Developing Economies 51 (3): 233-59. doi: 10.1111/deve.12017.
  • Ferreira, Francisco H. G., Phillippe G. Leite, Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, and Paulo Picchetti. 2008. "Can the Distributional Impacts of Macroeconomic Shocks Be Predicted?: A Comparison of Top-Down Macro-Micro Models with Historical Data for Brazil." In The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and IncomeDistribution: Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques and Tools, edited by François Bourguignon, Maurizio Bussolo, and Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 119-74. Washington, DC: World Bank; New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Book?
  • Fiszbein, Ariel, Ravi Kanbur, and Ruslan Yemtsov. 2014. "Social Protection and Poverty Reduction: Global Patterns and some Targets." World Development 61 (1): 167-177. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.04.010.
  • Fiszbein, Arial, and Norbert Schady. 2009. Conditional Cash Transfers: Reducing Present and Future Poverty. Report 47603. World Bank Policy Research Reports. With Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Margaret Grosh, Niall Keleher, Pedro Olinto, and Emmanuel Skoufias. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7352-1.
  • Foster, James, Joel Greer, and Erik Thorbecke. 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures." Econometrica52 (3): 761-66. doi: 10.2307/1913475.
  • Freije, Samuel, Gladys López-Acevedo, and Eduardo Rodríguez-Oreggia. 2011. "Effects of the 2008-09 Economic Crisis on Labor Markets in Mexico." Policy Research Working Paper 5840, World Bank, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1596/1813-9450-5840.
  • Gasparini, Leonardo, Sebastián Galiani, Guillermo Cruces, and Pablo Acosta. 2011. "Educational Upgrading and Returns to Skills in Latin America: Evidence from a Supply-Demand Framework, 1990-2010." Working Paper 127, Center for Distributive, Labor, and Social Studies, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, La Plata, Argentina. doi: 10.1596/1813-9450-5921.
  • Habib, Bilal, Ambar Narayan, Sergio Olivieri, and Carolina Sánchez-Páramo. 2010a. "Assessing Ex Ante the Poverty and Distributional Impact of the Global Crisis in a Developing Country: A Micro-Simulation Approach with Application to Bangladesh." Policy Research Working Paper 5238, World Bank, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1596/1813-9450-5238.
  • Habib, Bilal, 2010b. "Assessing Poverty and Distributional Impacts of the Global Crisis in the Philippines: AMicrosimulation Approach." Policy Research Working Paper 5286, World Bank, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1596/1813-9450-5286.
  • Habib, Bilal, 2010c. "The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Poverty and Income Distribution: Insights from Simulations in Selected Countries." PREM Economic Premise 7 (March), Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, World Bank, Washington, DC.
  • INE (National Institute of Statistics). 2006. Líneas de Pobreza e Indigencia 2006, Uruguay: Metodología yResultados. Montevideo, Uruguay: INE.
  • Kanbur, Ravi. 2010. "Protecting the Poor against the Next Crisis." Distinguished Lecture Series, April, Egyptian Centre for Economic Studies, Cairo.
  • Kanbur, Ravi. 2012. "Stress Testing for the Poverty Impacts of the Next Crisis." In Knowing, When You Do Not Know:Simulating the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of an Economic Crisis, edited by Ambar Narayan and Carolina Sánchez-Páramo, 50-55. World Bank Studies 66237. Washington, DC: World Bank.
  • López-Calva, Luis F., and Nora Lustig, eds. 2010. Declining Inequality in Latin America: A Decade of Progress?. New York: United Nations Development Programme; Baltimore: Brookings Institution Press.
  • López-Calva, Luis F., and Eduardo Ortiz-Juárez. 2014. "A Vulnerability Approach to the Definition of the Middle Class." Journal of Economic Inequality 12 (1): 23-47. doi:10.1007/s10888-012-9240-5.
  • Rofman, Rafael, ed. 2013. Hacia un Uruguay más equitativo: Los desafíos del sistema de protección social. Montevideo, Uruguay: World Bank.
  • World Bank. 2005. Uruguay: Sources of Growth, Policies for the Development of Human Capital, Integration, Competition, and Innovation. Report 31737-UY (June 14). Washington, DC: World Bank.
  • World Bank. 2012. "Potential Impact of a Global Economic Slowdown: The Uruguayan Case." Internal briefing note, World Bank, Washington, DC.
  • World Bank. 2013. "La Evolución de la Pobreza, la Desigualdad y la Movilidad de Ingresos en Uruguay durante la Década del 2000." Internal briefing note, World Bank, Washington, DC.
  • World Bank. ADePT Crisis Module. Test Version. Other modules of the ADePT software
Typ dokumentu
Identyfikator YADDA

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Musisz być zalogowany aby pisać komentarze.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.