Zastosowanie metody krigingu Poissona w badaniach rozkładu przestrzennego problemów społecznych na przykładzie Poznania

• Autorzy: Alfred Stach , Patrycja Wysocka

Warianty tytułu

Poisson Kriging as a Tool for Social Problems Analysis- Poznań Case Study

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Analiza przestrzenna danych społecznych wymaga niejednokrotnie odfiltrowania wpływu nierealnych, odstających danych. Celem pracy jest omówienie podstaw teoretycznych bardzo efektywnej, a mało znanej metody do tego służącej - krigingu Poissona. Ilustrację praktyczną jej zalet przedstawiono na przykładzie identyfikacji obszarów występowania różnych kategorii problemów społecznych na obszarze Poznania. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

Planning of social policy it is complicated and multidimensional issue, especially incomplex urban structures characteristic for big cities. However econometric indicators ofspatial dependence provide us some information about spatial autocorrelation, their donot show the differences in local variability. Geostatistics is an answer for this challenge.This method is not only helpful in more accurate determination of the most importantproblems but it also enables identification of their location, scale and possible reasons.This paper presents possibilities given by Poisson Kriging for analysis of socialproblems in urban space. Its was applied in Poznań for identification of neigh bourhoodsor local communities (related to the basic administrative units called "osiedla") in which concentration of people needing social help is bigger than population distribution mightit suggest. The data used in the analysis was taken from urban centre helping families indifficult social situation (MOPR). They concerns people who received financial supportin 2008. The basic information taken into account was their place of residence and thereason for which they received financial aid. MOPR distinguish 13 categories of socialproblems needing support, including poverty, chronic diseases, alcoholism and domesticviolence. 9 473 persons received financial aid in the analysed period of time. Taking intoaccount their families it give us at least 18 264 people struggling with social problems - 3,3% of the city population (545 000 inhabitants).In order to receive comparable measure of issues analysed in urban space, thenumber of people needing social support must be compared with the population distribution.Thus, information about place of residence of people who receives financial aidwas aggregated to bigger areas - 731 regular polygons for which the number of city inhabitants was know. Side length of single polygon was 500 meters. In each polygondata needed also to be age-adjusted. It is very sophisticated task, therefore special scriptdedicated for ArcGIS was created. The age-adjusted data aggregated in the polygonswere bases for main spatial analysis.Application of Poisson Kriging resulted in more precise identification of areasaffected by the major social problems in Poznań. Presence of autocorrelation wasnoticeable in case of majority of analysed social problems. The most common ranges of autocorrelation were 1-1,2 km (which is similar to the spatial range of single local188 Alfred Stach, Patrycja Wysocka communities) and 6-6,5 km (the range of single neighbourhoods). Analysis showed that there are some neighbourhoods in Poznań where occurrence of social problems issignificantly higher than mean occurrence for the whole city. Presented method enabledsmoothing of unreliable, extremely high relative risks values but without loss of the localvariability. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Analiza przestrzenna; Statystyka społeczna; Struktura społeczna; Zachowania społeczne; Zagrożenia społeczne; Geostatystyka; Choroby przewlekłe

EN

Spatial analysis; Social statistic; Social structure; Social behaviour; Social risks; Geostatistics; Chronic diseases

• Czasopismo: Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Geographica Socio-Oeconomica
• Rocznik: 2014
• Numer: nr 16 Przestrzeń publiczna i sektor usług w małych miastach
• Strony: 169--188

Twórcy

autor

Alfred Stach

• Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewiczaw Poznaniu

autor

Patrycja Wysocka

• Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewiczaw Poznaniu

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Identyfikatory

DOI

11089/10674