Efekt Balassy-Samuelsona i mechanizmy jego absorpcji

• Autorzy: Karolina Konopczak , Aleksander Welfe

Warianty tytułu

The Balassa-Samuelson Effect and the Mechanisms of Its Absorption

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Efekt Balassy-Samuelsona i efektywność potencjalnych kanałów jego absorpcji wymagają pogłębionych analiz, w szczególności w odniesieniu do tzw. krajów doganiających, które w perspektywie przystąpią do unii walutowej. Analiza przeprowadzona w artykule pozwoliła ocenić skalę presji infl acyjnej wynikającej z procesu konwergencji realnej i na tej podstawie sformułować wnioski dotyczące ryzyka nieadekwatności polityki pieniężnej Europejskiego Banku Centralnego w odniesieniu do gospodarki polskiej. Wyniki analizy wskazują, że systematyczna dywergencja infl acyjna może stanowić poważny koszt w przypadku akcesji Polski do strefy euro. Jej skala w przypadku Polski była bowiem wyższa niż w przypadku peryferyjnych państw członkowskich w pierwszej dekadzie funkcjonowania strefy euro. Co więcej, presja inflacyjna wynikająca z procesu doganiania była w Polsce wzmacniana przez funkcjonowanie rynku pracy. Otrzymane rezultaty wskazują na to, że nieuwzględnienie w specyfi kacji modelu Balassy-Samuelsona wpływu rynku pracy i rynku produktów może prowadzić do błędnych wniosków. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The Balassa-Samuelson effect and the effectiveness of the potential channels of its absorption require deeper research, especially with regard to the catching-up prospective members of the euro area. The analysis presented in the paper allows to assess the magnitude of inflationary pressure resulting from the real convergence process and, hence, the risk of inadequacy of the common monetary policy with respect to the Polish economy. The results suggest that the systematic inflation differentials can constitute a considerable cost in the case of Poland's accession to the euro area, since their estimated magnitude is higher than in the case of the peripheral member countries in the first decade of the functioning of the euro area. Moreover, inflationary pressure in Poland resulting from the catching-up process was reinforced in the sample period by the functioning of the domestic labour market. The analysis indicates that ignoring the influence of labour and product markets in the specification of the Balassa-Samuelson model can lead to biased results. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Integracja monetarna; Konwergencja realna; Inflacja; Strefa euro; Efekt Balassy-Samuelsona

EN

Monetary integration; Real convergence; Inflation; Eurozone; Balassa-Samuelson effect

• Czasopismo: Ekonomista
• Rocznik: 2015
• Numer: nr 4
• Strony: 463--489

Twórcy

autor

Karolina Konopczak

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie

autor

Aleksander Welfe

• Uniwersytet Łódzki

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