Methods of Risk Assessment Exemplified by Hydrological Risk

• Autorzy: Maria Ozga-Zielińska
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Risk most frequently relates to serious negative consequences that seldom occur. In the most common meaning, risk refers to the whole spectrum of unwelcome effects along with all related probabilities5. Hydrological risk is generally defined as probability that a phenomenon will occur bringing about losses that are frequently difficult to assess. Such a definition predominantly refers to extreme phenomena including e.g. unusually large flooding, long lasting deep low water or occurrence of a phenomenon value that exceeds (above or below) a value that a particular water management facility (dams, floodbanks, water intakes, etc) is designed for. Emergence of such phenomena results in destroying or malfunctioning of a particular facility and all related losses. Risk assessment may distinguish two major issues, i.e. risk assessment and risk acceptability assessment. Risk assessment may be performed by means of different methods including a tree of events method, a tree of errors method, a direct method based on empirical data and a method of the most grievous likely accident. First two methods are applied in qualitative analyses and qualitative ones that set probability of event series. Such methods involve decomposition of an analysed event into elemental events. A qualitative analysis allows for knowing and understanding a situation in the whole range of risk. However, a quantitative analysis of a series of events leads to assessing an amount of risk. The third of the methods mentioned above involves assessing risk without decomposition of an event subject to research on the basis of empirical data, i.e. sequences of observations of the event in question, In fourth method the most detrimental but simultaneously possible series of events leads to the most grievous but still likely accident. (fragment of text)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Flood; Risk assessment

PL

Powódź; Ocena ryzyka

• Czasopismo: Scientific Publications / University of Economics in Katowice
• Rocznik: 2007
• Tom: The insurance of catastrophic risk in the European Union and the global changes
• Strony: 247--262

Twórcy

autor

Maria Ozga-Zielińska

• The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw, Poland

Bibliografia

• Jennergen L.P., Keeney R.L.: Metody oceny ryzyka. IN: Analiza systemowa - podstawy metodyczne. Ed. W. Findeisen. PWN, Warszawa 1985.
• Ozga-Zielińska M., Brzeziński J.: Zasady obliczan ia największych przepływów rocznych o określonym prawdopodobieństwie przewyższenia przy projektowaniu obiektów budownictwa hydrotechnicznego. Długie ciągi pomiarowe przepływów. Materiały Badawcze IMGW 1999, No. 27.
• Ozga-Zielińska M., Kupczyk E., Ozga-Zieliński B., Suligowski R., Niedbała J., Brzeziński J.: Powodziogenność rzek pod kątem bezpieczeństwa budowli hydrotechnicznych I zagrożenia powodziowego. Podstawy metodyczne. Materiały Badawcze IMGW 2003, No. 29.