Wybory parlamentarne w Indiach w 2014 r. : znaczenie dla polityki wewnętrznej i zagranicznej

• Autorzy: Jakub Zajączkowski
• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

W 2014 r. odbyły się wybory do izby niższej parlamentu Indii, czyli Lok Sabha (Zgromadzenie Ludowe). Po raz pierwszy od 1984 r. jedna partia zdobyła ponad 50% miejsc w izbie niższej, co uprawnia ją do samodzielnego rządzenia. Wygrana koalicji Narodowego Sojuszu Demokratycznego (National Democratic Alliance, NDA) pod przewodnictwem Indyjskiej Partii Ludowej (Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP), która będzie miała 336 miejsc (na 543) w Lok Sabha, i najgorszy w historii wynik wyborczy Indyjskiego Kongresu Narodowego (IKN; uzyskał jedynie 44 miejsca w parlamencie) ukształtowały nową scenę polityczną w Indiach. Celem artykułu jest analiza wyników wyborczych oraz omówienie ich wpływu na system polityczny oraz na realizowaną przez Indie politykę gospodarczą i zagraniczną. Kwestią zasadniczą jest próba odpowiedzi na pytanie, czy zwycięstwo BJP oraz utworzenie rządu przez nowego premiera Narendrę Modiego wpłynie na tempo reform gospodarczych oraz politykę zagraniczną Indii. Wydaje się, że tak zdecydowane zwycięstwo jednej partii daje Indiom szansę przede wszystkim na realizację koniecznych, ale trudnych reform, zwłaszcza w sektorze rolnym, prawie pracy itd. W ostatnich 25 latach koalicyjne rządy nie były w stanie ich przeprowadzić. Należy jednak unikać jednoznacznych ocen. Dokonując bowiem analizy wyborów do Lok Sabha, trzeba wziąć pod uwagę specyfikę Indii. Są one państwem zróżnicowanym, wielokulturowym, z liczbą ludności sięgającą ponad 1 250 mld1. W artykule przedstawione zostaną możliwe scenariusze dotyczące polityki wewnętrznej i zagranicznej. Wydaje się jednak, że wyniki wyborów nie przyniosą rewolucji, lecz ewolucję. Dotyczy to zwłaszcza polityki wewnętrznej. Nie należy spodziewać się znaczącego przyspieszenia realizacji niepopularnych reform. W dużo większym stopniu zmiany uwidocznią się w polityce zagranicznej Indii. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

In 2014, India held elections to the lower chamber of the parliament, the Lok Sabha (People's Assembly). For the first time since 1984, one party won more than 50 per cent of the seats in the lower chamber, which allows it to govern independently. The victory of the National Democratic Alliance coalition led by the Indian People's Party (Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP), which will have 336 seats (in 543) in the Lok Sabha, and the worst election result of the Indian National Congress ever (only 44 seats) shaped a new political scene in India. The aim of this article is to analyse the election results and discuss their impact on the political system and on India's foreign and economic policy. The key concept of the article is to seek an answer to whether the victory of the BJP and the establishment of the new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have an effect on the pace of economic reform and foreign policy of India. It seems that such a decisive victory of one party gives India an opportunity to carry out the necessary but difficult reforms, especially in the agricultural sector, labour law, etc. However, we should avoid explicit opinions because any analysis of the elections to the Lok Sabha should take into account the specificity of India, which is a diverse and multicultural country. The article presents the possible scenarios for domestic and foreign policy, but it seems that the results of the elections will bring evolution rather than revolution. This applies especially to domestic policy. We should not expect any significant acceleration in the implementation of unpopular reforms. Considerable changes are much more likely to take place in India's foreign policy. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Wybory parlamentarne; Polityka wewnętrzna; Polityka zagraniczna

EN

Parliamentary election; Domestic policy; Foreign policy

• Czasopismo: Stosunki Międzynarodowe
• Rocznik: 2015
• Tom: 51
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 187--211

Twórcy

autor

Jakub Zajączkowski

• Uniwersytet Warszawski

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.7366/020909611201512