Efekty ponadgraniczne niekonwencjonalnej polityki monetarnej

• Autorzy: Marek Lubiński

Warianty tytułu

International spillover effects of unconventional monetary poli

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Tematem artykułu jest analiza efektów zewnętrznych niekonwencjonalnej polityki monetarnej (unconventional monetary policy, UMP). Tekst odwołuję się do literatury poświęconej mechanizmom transmisji UMP, a także wyników badań empirycznych. Ostatni kryzys finansowy i ekonomiczny wywołał bezprecedensową reakcję ze strony polityki monetarnej. Główne banki centralne odwołały się do wysoce akomodacyjnej polityki pieniężnej, obniżającej stopy procentowe prawie do zera. Ograniczyło to możliwości dalszego stymulowania gospodarki i wymusiło odwołanie się do instrumentów niekonwencjonalnych. Artykuł służy poszukiwaniu odpowiedzi na pytanie, czy UMP stała się źródłem impulsów transmitowanych z krajów rozwiniętych do rozwijających się. Jeżeli nawet UMP zmniejszyła dysfunkcjonalność rynków finansowych w krajach rozwiniętych, to z drugiej strony mogła wywołać napływ kapitału, zmienność kursów walutowych i niestabilność rynków finansowych w krajach rozwijających się. Wyniki sugerują, że faktycznie występują znaczące efekty zewnętrzne, trudno natomiast jednoznacznie ocenić, czy są one pozytywne czy negatywne. Ponadto UMP wydaje się wywierać podobny wpływ na gospodarkę jak polityka konwencjonalna. Wskazuje to, że większe znaczenie może mieć charakter polityki, a nie konkretne formy w jakich jest prowadzona. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The paper examines the spillover effects of what is now commonly known as unconventional monetary policy (UMP). The article is based on a literature review that focuses on identifying the mechanisms of international spillovers. The recent financial and economic crisis was followed by an unprecedented monetary policy response. Major central banks adopted a highly accommodative monetary policy stance, cutting their policy interest rates to near zero. Then, as the zero bound on nominal interest rates is a significant constraint on central bank action, further stimulus was provided by unorthodox tools. The paper investigates whether unconventional monetary policy produces spillover effects from advanced economies into emerging markets. While unconventional central bank interventions have mitigated dysfunction in targeted markets in developed countries, they could have produced spillover effects associated with the inflow of capital and higher volatility in currency and financial markets in developing countries. The results suggest that there are indeed global spillovers and externalities from monetary policy decisions in advanced economies. However, it is difficult to determine whether such externalities are overall positive or negative for other economies, the author says. The potentially undesirable effects of these measures on the procyclicality of capital flows to emerging market economies (EME) need to be weighed against potential benefits such as increased economic activity and better functioning of financial markets in the global economy. Recent research suggests that adjustments in policy rates and unconventional policies have similar cross-border effects on asset prices and economic outcomes. If that is so, the author argues, then the overall stance of policy accommodation matters more here than the particular form of easing. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Polityka pieniężna; Niekonwencjonalne zarządzanie; Kryzys finansowy; Analiza ilościowa

EN

Monetary policy; Unorthodox management; Financial crisis; Quantitative analysis

• Czasopismo: Gospodarka Narodowa
• Rocznik: 2015
• Numer: nr 6
• Strony: 5--28

Twórcy

autor

Marek Lubiński

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie

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