The HSE ESI and the Business Cycle in the Russian Economy

• Autorzy: Ludmila Kitrar , Tamara Lipkind , Inna Lola , Georgy Ostapkovich , Dmitry Chusovlyanov
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

As the Russian economy is presently characterized by high uncertainty of doing business and a growing gap between opinions and actions of firms and decision makers, the importance of qualitative business surveys as a source of information is significantly rising. The paper investigates the ability of Russian business tendency surveys to identify business cycle turning points. For this purpose we have constructed an algorithm to build economic indicators which cover all information contained in the sectoral business surveys data. Identification of the turning points of these indicators allows us to track the stylized 'averaged' chronology of the business cycle. In addition, we have evaluated ex post the turning points in the GDP growth on the basis of the extracted cyclical component of the composite Economic Sentiment Indicator. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Business cycles; Business surveys; Economy; Economic indicators

PL

Cykl koniunkturalny; Badania koniunktury; Gospodarka; Wskaźniki ekonomiczne

• Czasopismo: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2015
• Numer: nr 97 Economic cycles and uncertainty
• Strony: 45--66

Twórcy

autor

Ludmila Kitrar

• Higher School of Economics Moscow, Russian Federation

autor

Tamara Lipkind

• Higher School of Economics Moscow, Russian Federation

autor

Inna Lola

• Higher School of Economics Moscow, Russian Federation

autor

Georgy Ostapkovich

• Higher School of Economics Moscow, Russian Federation

autor

Dmitry Chusovlyanov

• Higher School of Economics Moscow, Russian Federation

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