Practical Utility Estimation of Polish Bankruptcy Prediction Models

• Autorzy: Piotr Chrzan , Wioletta Skibińska
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The phenomenon of insolvency contributes to the development of the research which makes it possible to create tools for signalling, in proper advance and with precision, the symptoms indicating that the financial situation of a company is worsening. The simplest method of evaluating the financial liquidity of a company, i.e. the indicator analysis, based on the establishment and evaluation of the traditional financial indicators with the help of the historical data included in the financial reports, is not always sufficient. As far as the evaluation of the presently occurring symptoms of a financial crisis and the risk of insolvency is concerned, it is necessary to apply such a system of early warning, which would include both elements of the traditional indicator analysis and more complicated techniques of the quantity analysis. In the developed market economies the methods of prognosticating insolvency have been known for several decades now, and are the subject of both theoretical and empirical studies. In Poland, the research works on the methods of prognosticating insolvency were triggered off by the numerous bankruptcies which took place at the beginning of the nineties, caused by the transformation of Polish economy. As proves the practice of the developed countries, which for many years have been constructing the most effective models for prognosticating insolvency, it is a mistake to apply the models developed for a specific economy to the companies functioning in the realities of another economy. According to the results of the research, the period of effectiveness of such models is limited. (fragment of text)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Finance; Information science; Statistical methods; Financial mathematics; Estimation; Enterprises bankruptcy forecasting; Discriminant analysis

PL

Finanse; Informatyka; Metody statystyczne; Matematyka finansowa; Estymacja; Prognozowanie upadłości przedsiębiorstwa; Analiza dyskryminacyjna

• Czasopismo: Scientific Publications / University of Economics in Katowice
• Rocznik: 2006
• Tom: Mathematical, econometrical and computational methods in finance and insurance
• Strony: 101--106

Twórcy

autor

Piotr Chrzan

• University of Economics in Katowice, Poland

autor

Wioletta Skibińska

• Technical University of Częstochowa, Poland

Bibliografia

• Gajdka J., Stos D.: Wykorzystanie analizy dyskryminacyjnej w ocenie kondycji finansowej przedsiębiorstw. W: L. Borowiecki: Restrukturyzacja w procesie przekształceń i rozwoju przedsiębiorstw. AE, Kraków 1996.
• Hadasik D.: Upadłość przedsiębiorstw w Polsce i metody jej prognozowania. AE, Poznań 1998.
• Hołda A.: Prognozowanie bankructwa jednostki w warunkach gospodarki polskiej z wykorzystaniem funkcji dyskryminacyjnej ZH. "Rachunkowość" 2000, nr 5.
• Hamrol A., Czajka B., Piechocki M.: Upadłość przedsiębiorstwa - model analizy dyskryminacyjnej. "Przegląd Organizacji" 2004, nr 6.