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2016 | 19 | nr 3 | 147--167
Tytuł artykułu

The Finance Growth Link : Comparative Analysis of Two Eastern African Countries

Warianty tytułu
System finansowy a wzrost gospodarczy : analiza porównawcza dwóch państw Afryki Wschodniej
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
W artykule poddano analizie zależność wzrostu gospodarczego od rozwoju systemu finansowego w dwóch gospodarkach regionu Afryki Subsaharyjskiej o niskich dochodach - Etiopii i Kenii - które mają różne systemy finansowe, ale znajdują się w tym samym regionie. Inaczej niż w poprzednich badaniach, wykazujemy tutaj rolę niebankowych finansowych instytucji pośredniczących i formalnie modelujemy efekty zmian strukturalnych spowodowanych przez polityki oraz zdarzenia gospodarcze wywołane przez rynek. Wykorzystano model wektorowej autoregresji (VAR), przeprowadzono analizę odpowiedzi impulsowych i zbadano dekompozycję wariancji. Stwierdzono, że ani poziom rozwoju pośrednictwa finansowego ani poziom rozwoju rynku akcji nie stanowi wyjaśnienia zjawiska wzrostu gospodarczego w Kenii. W Etiopii, która nie dysponuje rynkiem giełdowym, rozwój instytucji pośredniczących jest napędzany przez wzrost gospodarczy. Z tych ustaleń mogą być wyciągnięte trzy ważne wnioski. Po pierwsze, często obserwowany pozytywny związek między rozwojem systemu finansowego a wzrostem gospodarczym może być spowodowany przez agregację krajów będących na różnych etapach rozwoju gospodarczego i finansowego. Po drugie, sytuacja i zdarzenia gospodarcze w poszczególnych krajach mają znaczenie dla badania relacji między rozwojem finansowym a wzrostem gospodarczym. Po trzecie, istnieje możliwość, że model ekonometryczny zastosowany do testowania powiązań między wzrostem a finansami będzie przydatny, ponieważ, jak zwrócono uwagę, we wcześniejszych badaniach nie uwzględniano zmiennych kontrolnych.
EN
This paper examines the finance growth link of two low-income Sub-Saharan African economies - Ethiopia and Kenya - which have different financial systems but are located in the same region. Unlike previous studies, we account for the role of non-bank financial intermediaries and formally model the effect of structural breaks caused by policy and market-induced economic events. We used the Vector Autoregressive model (VAR), conducted impulse response analysis and examined variance decomposition. We find that neither the level of financial intermediary development nor the level of stock market development explains economic growth in Kenya. For Ethiopia, which has no stock market, intermediary development is found to be driven by economic growth. Three important inferences can be made from these findings. First, the often reported positive link between finance and growth might be caused by the aggregation of countries at different stages of economic growth and financial development. Second, country-specific economic situations and episodes are important in studying the relationship between financial development and economic growth. Third, there is the possibility that the econometric model employed to test the finance growth link plays a role in the empirical result, as we note that prior studies did not introduce control variables.
Rocznik
Tom
19
Numer
Strony
147--167
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • University of South Africa, South Africa
  • University of South Africa, South Africa
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171436702

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