Cięcia budżetowe. Przegląd najnowszych badań

• Autorzy: Mariusz Maziarz

Warianty tytułu

Austerity at the Treasury. A Review of the Recent Literature

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Celem artykułu jest dokonanie krytycznej analizy najnowszej literatury kliometrycznej poświęconej dwóm hipotezom związanym z jednym z najbardziej palących problemów gospodarki globalnej, tj. historycznie najwyższym poziomom długu publicznego. Dokonano przeglądu badań opublikowanych po roku 2009 poświęconych hipotezie progu na poziomie 90% (the 90%-threshold hypothesis) oraz hipotezie ekspansywnych cięć budżetowych (expansionary fiscal contraction hypothesis). Opinie kliometryków są silnie podzielone, jednak przeprowadzona analiza wskazuje, że (1) duża doza sceptycyzmu jest niezbędna do właściwej oceny wyników badań ilościowych, (2) brak jest jednoznacznych dowodów kliometrycznych na szczególnie negatywny wpływ wysokich poziomów długu publicznego na wzrost gospodarczy, (3) ze względu na możliwy kontrakcyjny wpływ dostosowania budżetowe powinny być dokonywane, gdy recesja dobiegnie końca i (4) powinny polegać na cięciach wydatków, a nie wzroście fiskalizacji gospodarki.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The goal is analyzing the most recent cliometric literature on two hypotheses connected to one of the most fiercing problems of the world economy, i.e. historically highest levels of public debt. The author focuses on research published after 2009 aimed at assessing the 90% threshold hypothesis and the expansionary fiscal contraction hypothesis. The opinions among cliometricians are vastly divided. The author concludes that (1) a great dose of scepticism is needed in assessing the recent empirical findings, (2) the 90% threshold hypothesis is not proven, (3) austerity at the Treasure should take place after a recession ends due to possible contractionary influence and (4) it should be based on spending cuts rather than tax increases.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Dług publiczny; Wzrost gospodarczy; Budżet

EN

Public debt; Economic growth; Budget

• Czasopismo: Ekonomia XXI Wieku
• Rocznik: 2016
• Numer: nr 2 (10)
• Strony: 9--21

Twórcy

autor

Mariusz Maziarz

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wrocławiu

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.15611/e21.2016.2.01