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Czasopismo
2016 | nr 4 (239) | 23--31
Tytuł artykułu

Intensity of Intra-Industry Trade and Poland's Susceptibility to Asymmetric Shocks

Warianty tytułu
Intensywność handlu wewnątrzgałęziowego a podatność Polski na szoki asymetryczne
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
Celem artykułu jest ocena siły powiązań handlu wewnątrzgałęziowego (IIT) między Polską i krajami strefy euro oraz pozostałymi krajami unii gospodarczej i walutowej (UGW). Obliczone wskaźniki IIT stanowią podstawę oceny stopnia trwałości zbieżności cykli koniunkturalnych (i podatności na szoki asymetryczne) w Polsce i krajach partnerskich oraz stopnia przygotowania Polski do przyjęcia euro. Obliczeń dokonano przy użyciu standardowego indeksu Grubela-Lloyda, który mierzy udział handlu wewnątrzgałęziowego w handlu kraju ogółem. Analizę dla Polski przedstawiono na tle teoretycznych związków między integracją monetarną i wynikającym z niej wzrostem handlu a podatnością kraju na szoki asymetryczne. Wysoki wskaźnik IIT odzwierciedla rosnące podobieństwo cyklu koniunkturalnego Polski z cyklami krajów strefy euro i komplementarność polskiej gospodarki ze strukturą gospodarek strefy euro. Wynika z tego, że stopień synchronizacji cyklu koniunkturalnego nie wydaje się być w Polsce przeszkodą w przystąpieniu do strefy euro. (abstrakt oryginalny)
EN
This article aims to assess the strength of links of intraindustry trade (IIT) between Poland and the euro area and the other Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries. The computed IIT indices serve to evaluate the degree of sustainability of business cycle convergence (and susceptibility to asymmetric shocks) in Poland and its trading partners as well as Poland's preparedness for the adoption of the euro. The calculations were made with the use of the standard Grubel-Lloyd index, measuring the share of intraindustry trade in a country's total trade. The statistical analysis for Poland was presented against the backdrop of theoretical relationships between monetary integration and the related trade growth and business cycle convergence. The high index of IIT reflects the increasing similarity of Poland's business cycle with the euro area and the complementarity of the Polish economy with the economic structures of the euro area partners. Thus, the business cycle correlation does not seem to be an obstacle for Poland to join the euro area. (original abstract)
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
23--31
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
Bibliografia
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171450625

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