Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: the Case of Ukraine

• Autorzy: Olga Popova , Jörg Jablinski , Tamara Lukashenko
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This article demonstrates the assumptions of economic theory and its followers, the theories which stimulate research on the positive correlation between the success of the economy, its growth and the level of international trade. The empirical analysis of this paper examines the example of the exchange rate volatility and its influence on international trade on the basis of Ukraine. In the descriptive part of this study, which looks at the exchange rate volatility in Ukraine as a whole, the authors have aggregated the bilateral volatilities using trade shares as weights to obtain what is referred to as the "effective volatility" of the country's exchange rates. It is summarized that the current situation in Ukraine is extremely difficult, and external financial support could alleviate the crisis. The time span used in the work includes the years from 1999 to 2014, with the help of which the authors have demonstrated the fluctuation and correlation between these two factors. From the graph it has been possible to make the conclusion that even if there was no significant visible correlation between trade and the exchange rate volatility, it does not mean that there is no relationship between these two factors, because there are a lot of factors which affect the level of trade. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Trade; Exchange rates; International transactions; Economic growth; International trade; Case study; Exchange rate variability; Empirical analysis

PL

Handel; Kurs walutowy; Transakcje międzynarodowe; Wzrost gospodarczy; Handel międzynarodowy; Studium przypadku; Zmienność kursu walutowego; Analiza empiryczna

• Czasopismo: Research Papers in Economics and Finance
• Rocznik: 2016
• Tom: 1
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 17--23

Twórcy

autor

Olga Popova

• Donetsk National Technical University, Ukraine

autor

Jörg Jablinski

• Ostwestfalen-Lippe University of Applied Sciences, Lemgo, Germany

autor

Tamara Lukashenko

Bibliografia

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• Higgins, M, Klitgaard, T., 2014, The balance of payments crisis in the European periphery, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 1-8.
• Lanyi, A., Suss, E.C., 1982, Exchange Rate Variability: Alternative Measures and Interpretation, IMF Staff Papers, pp. 527-560.
• McKenzie, M. D., 1999, The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows, Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 71-106.
• Polak, J.J., 2002, The Two Monetary Approaches to the Balance of Payments: Keynesian and Johnsonian, in: Arnon, A., Young, W. (eds.), The Open Economy Macromodel: Past, Present and Future, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 19-41.
• Porter, M.E., 1990, The Competitive Advantage of Nations, New York: Free Press. (Republished with a new introduction, 1998.).
• Tenreyro, S., 2007, On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 82, pp. 485-508.
• Tielens, J., Van Aarle, B., Van Hove, J., 2014, Effects of Eurobonds: A stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal, Ireland and Greece, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 42 (C), pp. 156-173.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.18559/ref.2016.1.2