Prognozowanie obrotów ładunkowych w portach morskich przy wykorzystaniu metod ilościowych

• Autorzy: Krzysztof Ziółkowski , Ryszard Miler

Warianty tytułu

Forecasting Cargo Turnover at Sea Ports with the Use of Quantitative Methods

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Artykuł dotyczy możliwości wykorzystania metod prognozowania opartych na analizie szeregów czasowych do określania wielkości obrotów w portach morskich w przyszłości. Na wstępie dokonano przeglądu metod prognozowania, mających zastosowanie w predykcji wielkości obrotów w portach morskich. Następnie dokonano stosownych obliczeń i przedstawiono wyniki prognozowania obrotów w przyszłości na podstawie różnych metod prognozowania opartych na analizie szeregów czasowych, wykorzystując dane historyczne dotyczące wielkości zrealizowanych obrotów w przeszłości.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

Over the last two decades a number of significant changes in the development of statistical and econometric methods has taken place. Along with the development of information technologies some new applications have been found for the quantitative methods, and they have been implemented to forecast processes in maritime logistics. In contemporary world economy a more sophisticated approach to the process of forecasting is needed, and it requires application of a quantitative apparatus. This will undoubtedly result in the use of extended cause-and-effect models, most often including the statistical ones. The global expansion of economic operations, the fact that national economies become more and more open, and the liberalisation of international trade contribute to the acceleration of dynamic increase in the global commodity turnover. Moreover, all these factors also result in the increase in intensity and concentration of sea cargo flows and some changes in their type and geographical structure. These tendencies create advantageous conditions for the development of trade and maritime transport. It sets new challenges related to the optimisation of multi-industry sea-land transport chains which handle cargo flows. The following publication presents basic models applied in maritime logistics while forecasting cargo turnover at sea ports. The most frequently used, classic and typical methods of forecasting development of a particular phenomenon in time, include the use of the average absolute growth, the average rate of changes and the functions of developmental tendency. The methods which apply the average absolute growth and the average rate of changes are referred to as intuitive methods, and they do not require any sophisticated instruments to be applied. A solution to problems connected with the application of forecast instruments discussed above can be the application of methods which are adjustable to the changes taking place in the mechanisms of the development of a phenomenon in time, namely: adaptation methods. Among such non-classic forecast methods, the forecasts obtained from the naive models are the simplest. This approach assumes that in the future a phenomenon will be subject to the same mechanisms as in the last known period of time. It is possible to apply one of the following approaches: the naïve forecast - the level without any changes; the naïve forecast - the growth without any changes; the naïve forecast - the percentage growth without any changes. While constructing the forecasts of economic processes, more advanced models are also taken into consideration: the Brown's model, the Holt's model, the ARIMA model (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process) or the Winter's model. The selected models have been used to perform the analyses based on empirical data. The presented calculations have been provided based on the data published by Central Statistics Office which refer to the volume of goods loaded and unloaded (including transit) at Polish sea ports between 1999 and 2014. In the analytical part of the article, authors provide a separate forecast for loading and unloading, with the use of the following methods and also evaluate their efficiency. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Porty morskie; Metody ilościowe; Prognozowanie; Prognozowanie rozwoju transportu; Logistyka; Transport; Obroty handlowe

EN

Seaports; Quantitative methods; Forecasting; Prediction of the development of transport; Logistics; Transport; Trade turnover

• Czasopismo: Prace Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Bankowej w Gdańsku
• Rocznik: 2016
• Tom: 46 Wymiary logistyki : konkurencyjność podmiotów TSL
• Strony: 85--103

Twórcy

autor

Krzysztof Ziółkowski

• Wyższa Szkoła Bankowa w Gdańsku

autor

Ryszard Miler

• Wyższa Szkoła Bankowa w Gdańsku

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