Oczekiwania wobec makroekonomicznych efektów Transatlantyckiego Partnerstwa Handlowo-Inwestycyjnego : próba konstruktywnej oceny

• Autorzy: Joanna Działo , Bogna Gawrońska-Nowak

Warianty tytułu

Expectations of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Macroeconomic Effects : an Attempt to Provide Constructive Assessment

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Celem artykułu jest próba przeglądu i krytycznej analizy istniejącego dorobku dotyczącego oczekiwanych i przewidywanych makroekonomicznych efektów Transatlantyckiego Partnerstwa Handlowo-Inwestycyjnego dla UE i USA. Zaprezentowane zostały najważniejsze cele negocjowanego porozumienia oraz skutki, jakich oczekują obie strony negocjujące TTIP, a także oczekiwania społeczne wyrażone w dostępnych badaniach opinii publicznej. Ponadto zostały omówione wyniki badań empirycznych wykorzystujących modele CGE do projekcji makroekonomicznych skutków TTIP. Co więcej, symulacje związane ze spodziewanymi rezultatami TTIP zostały skonfrontowane z doświadczeniami porozumienia NAFTA, które funkcjonuje od 22 lat pomiędzy USA, Kanadą i Meksykiem. Wyniki analizy porównawczej projekcji ex ante i wyników badań empirycznych ex post w odniesieniu do skutków porozumienia NAFTA pokazały, że większość modeli ex ante przeszacowuje korzyści i niedoszacowuje straty wynikające z wolnego handlu. Doświadczenia NAFTA uwypuklają słabości projekcji ex ante, ale jednocześnie ukazane rozbieżności pomiędzy szacowanymi i realnymi efektami NAFTA mogą stanowić wskazówkę, jakiej skali niedopasowania szacunków do rzeczywistości można oczekiwać w przypadku porozumienia TTIP. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The main purpose of the paper is to provide a critical overview and analysis of literature concerning expected and predicted macroeconomic effects of the TTIP on the EU and the US. The paper contains information on the main points that are being negotiated by the representatives of the EU and the US. We also try to shed some light on the social expectations of the TTIP, which we discuss with reference to Eurobarometer and Bertelsmann Foundation survey results. The CGE model results together with the critique and macroeconomic consequences of the TTIP are captured, too. Moreover, these are compared to the experience of NAFTA - the agreement between the USA, Canada and Mexico, which has been in force for 22 years now. A comparative analysis of NAFTA ex ante models and the results of empirical research ex post shows that most ex ante models overestimated benefits and underestimated losses of the Free Trade Agreement. NAFTA experience emphasises weaknesses of ex ante models and shows that a mismatch between real and estimated effects of NAFTA can be an indicative answer to the question about the scale of a mismatch between the TTIP prospective and real influence. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Transatlantyckie Partnerstwo w Dziedzinie Handlu i Inwestycji; Makroekonomia; Analiza porównawcza

EN

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP); Macroeconomics; Comparative analysis

• Czasopismo: Myśl Ekonomiczna i Polityczna
• Rocznik: 2016
• Numer: nr 4 (55)
• Strony: 19--54

Twórcy

autor

Joanna Działo

• Uniwersytet Łódzki

autor

Bogna Gawrońska-Nowak

• Uczelnia Łazarskiego w Warszawie

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