Selection of Relevant Variables Identifying the Relationship between the General Government Sector Size and the Economy

• Autorzy: Tomasz Skica , Jacek Rodzinka , Teresa Mroczek

Warianty tytułu

Selekcja zmiennych identyfikujących zależność między wielkością sektora finansów publicznych i gospodarki

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The article is dedicated to research on relations between size of general government sector and the economy. The aim of this article is determination of the most important values that are used to identify relations between size of the sector and the economy, as well as determination of how frequently they appear in relation to pair of the variables that are being researched. In exploration of relations between the variables that describe size of general government sector and the economy, the authors used methodology that bases on Bayes networks. The object of the analyses was the economies of EU member states and their public finances systems. The period that was selected for the research has covered the years 2000-2013 (inclusive). In order to describe economies, the authors selected 18 variables, whereas to describe general government sector 15 variables. All variables were sourced from databases of Eurostat, OECD and World Bank. Among economy's measures and general government sector's measures, there were also some benchmarks found as standard ones (classical ones) as well as measures proposed by the authors, which were not used in the scientific descriptions that were dedicated to researches on sizes of general government sector. Ipso facto, this article fits in the discussion on, general government sector and optimization of its size, and at the same time it provides starting point for further research on sector's size and its influence on economy. (original abstract)

Artykuł poświęcony został zbadaniu związków zachodzących pomiędzy rozmiarem sektora finansów publicznych (SFP) a gospodarką. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest zidentyfikowanie najważniejszych zmiennych służących zobrazowaniu związków zachodzących pomiędzy rozmiarem SFP i gospodarką oraz ustalenie częstotliwości ich występowania w relacji do badanych par zmiennych. Do odkrywania związków pomiędzy zmiennymi opisującymi rozmiary SFP oraz gospodarki wykorzystano metodologię bazującą na sieciach Bayesa. Analizie poddano gospodarki państw UE oraz ich systemy finansów publicznych. Okres przyjęty do badań obejmował roczniki od 2000 do 2013. Do opisu gospodarki wytypowano 18, a do opisu SFP 15 zmiennych, dla których źródłem były bazy Eurostat, OECD oraz Banku Światowego. Wśród miar gospodarki oraz SFP znalazły się zarówno miary uznawane za standardowe (klasyczne), jak i mierniki zaproponowane przez autorów. Przeprowadzone badania pozwoliły zbudować ranking zmiennych opisujących rozmiary SFP według klasyfikacji opartej na maksymalnej liczbie ich wystąpień w regułach opisujących gospodarkę. Badanie umożliwiło także opracowanie rankingu zmiennych opisujących rozmiary SFP oparte na liczbie związków identyfikowanych w odniesieniu do pojedynczej zmiennej opisującej rozmiary SFP ze zmienną opisującą gospodarkę. W wyniku analiz ustalono, które ze zmiennych opisujących rozmiary SFP oraz zmiennych opisujących gospodarkę wykazywały w badanym okresie największą częstotliwość związków mierzoną liczbą lat, w których identyfikowano powiązania pomiędzy zmiennymi. Badanie pozwoliło zbudować ranking zmiennych opisujących rozmiary SFP według kryterium liczby zmiennych opisujących gospodarkę, w stosunku do których miary SFP wykazywały związek. Przeprowadzone ustalenia powodują, że artykuł wpisuje się w dyskusję nad SFP i optymalizacją jego rozmiaru, a jednocześnie stanowi punkt wyjścia dla dalszych badań nad jego wielkością oraz wpływem na gospodarkę. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Public finance sector; Economic policy; Public finance

PL

Sektor finansów publicznych; Polityka gospodarcza; Finanse publiczne

• Czasopismo: Modern Management Review
• Rocznik: 2016
• Tom: 21 (XXI)
• Numer: nr 23 (3)
• Strony: 131--166

Twórcy

autor

Tomasz Skica

• Wyższa Szkoła Informatyki i Zarządzania w Rzeszowie

autor

Jacek Rodzinka

• Wyższa Szkoła Informatyki i Zarządzania w Rzeszowie

autor

Teresa Mroczek

• Wyższa Szkoła Informatyki i Zarządzania w Rzeszowie

Bibliografia

• [1] Afonso A., Furceri D., Government Size, Composition, Volatility and Economic Growth, European "Journal of Political Economy" 2010, 26(4).
• [2] Afonso A., Jalles J., Economic Performance and Government Size, Working Paper 2011, no. 21, DE UECE.
• [3] Afonso A., Schuknecht L., Tanzi, V., Public Sector Efficiency: An International Comparison, Public Choice 2005, 123(3-4).
• [4] Agell J., Lindh T., Ohlsson H., Growth and the public sector: A critical review essay, "European Journal of Political Economy" 1997, Vol. 13.
• [5] Agell J., Ohlsson H., Skogman Thoursie P., Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries: A Comment, "European Economic Review" 2006, 50(1).
• [6] Alesina A., Ardagna S., Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending, NBER Working Paper, 2009, No. 15438.
• [7] Alexander, W.R.J., Growth: Some combined cross-sectional and time series evidence from OECD countries, "Applied Economics" 1990, 22.
• [8] Atkinson A.B., The welfare state and economic performance, "National Tax Journal" 1995, Vol. 48.
• [9] Bairam E., (1988), Government expenditure and economic growth: reflections on Professor Ram's approach, a new framework and some evidence from New Zealand time-series data, "Keio economic studies" 1988, Vol. 25. 1.
• [10] Bajo-Rubio O., A further generalization of the Solow growth model: the role of the public sector, "Economic Letters" 2000, Vol. 68(1).
• [11] Barro, R.J., A cross-country study of growth, saving, and government, Working paper 1989, No 2855 NBER, Cambridge, MA.
• [12] Barro, R.J., Economic growth in a cross section of countries, "Quarterly Journal of Economics" 1991, Vol. 106(2).
• [13] Barth J.R., Bradley M., (1988), The impact of government spending on economic activity, Mimeo. The National Chamber Foundation, Washington 1988.
• [14] Bergh A., Henrekson M., Government Size and Growth: A Survey and Interpretation of the Evidence, IFN Working Paper 2011, No. 858.
• [15] Bergh A., Karlsson M., Government Size and Growth: Accounting for Economic Freedom and Globalization, "Public Choice" 2010, 142(1-2).
• [16] Bose N., Haque M.E., Osborn D.R., Public Expenditure and Growth in Developing Countries: Education is the Key, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series from Economics, The University of Manchester, Discussion Paper Series No. 030, 2003.
• [17] Cameron D.R., The Expansion of the Public Economy: A Comparative Analysis, "American Political Science Review" 1978, 72.
• [18] Carlstrom C., Gokhale J., Government consumption, taxation, and economic activity, "Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Review" 1991, 3rd Quarter.
• [19] Chickering D.M., Optimal Structure Identification with Greedy Search, "Journal of Machine Learning Research" 2002, 3.
• [20] Chickering D.M., Heckerman D., Meek C., A Bayesian Approach to Learning Bayesian Networks with Local Structure [in:] Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Morgan Kaufmann 1997a.
• [21] Chickering D.M., Heckerman D., Meek C., A Bayesian Approach to Learning Bayesian Networks with Local Structure, Technical report MSR-TR-97-07, Microsoft Research 1997b.
• [22] Chobanov D., Mladenova A., What Is the Optimum Size of Government, Institute for Market Economics, Bulgaria 2009.
• [23] Colombier C., Growth Effects of Fiscal Policies: An Application of Robust Modified M-Estimator, "Applied Economics" 2009, 41(7).
• [24] Conte M.A., Darrat A.F., Economic growth and the expanding public sector: A reexamination, "Review of Economics and Statistics" 1988, 70.
• [25] Cooper G.F., Herskovitz E., A Bayesian Method for the Induction of probabilistic networks from data, Mach Learn, 1992, 9.
• [26] Czyzewska M., Mroczek T., Bayesian Approach to the Process of Identification of the Determinants of Innovativeness, e-Finanse, 2014, Vol. 10(2).
• [27] Dar A.A., Amirkhalkhali S., Government size, factor accumulation, and economic growth: evidence form OECD countries, "Journal of Policy Modelling" 2002, Vol. 24.
• [28] de Santana A.L., Frances C.R., Rocha C.A., Carvalho S.V., Vijaykumar N.L., Rego L.P., Costa J.C., Strategies for Improving the Modeling and interpretability of Bayesian networks, Data and Knowledge Engineering 2007, 63(1).
• [29] De Witte K., Moesen W., Sizing the government, "Public Choice" 2010, Vol. 145(1).
• [30] Di Liddo G., Magazzino C. Porcelli F., Decentralization, growth and optimal government size in the Italian regional framework. A BARS curve approach, CREI Working Paper 2013, No. 1/2015.
• [31] Dilrukshini, W.A., Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: Cointegration Analysis and Causality Testing, Staff Studies Central of Sri Lanka 2002, Vol. 34(1).
• [32] Easterly W., Rebelo S., Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation, "Journal of Monetary Economics" 1993, Vol. 32(3).
• [33] Engen E.M., Skinner J., Fiscal policy and economic growth, Working Paper 1992, No 4223 NBER, Cambridge, MA.
• [34] European system of national and regional accounts (ESA2010).
• [35] Faulkner E., K2GA: Heuristically Guided Evolution of Bayesian Network Structures from Data [in:] Proceedings of the IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Data Mining, IEEE 2007.
• [36] Fölster S., Henrekson F., Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries, "European Economic Review" 2001, Vol. 45(8).
• [37] Friedland R., Sanders J., The Politics of Economic Growth in Market Economies, Unpublished manuscript, Department of Sociology, University of California, Santa Barbara 1983.
• [38] Grier K., Tullock G., An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth 1951-1980, "Journal of Monetary Economics" 1989, 24.
• [39] Grzymala-Busse J.W., LERS - A system for learning from examples based on rough sets [in:] R. Slowinski (ed.), Intelligent Decision Support. Handbook of Applications and Advances of the Rough Set Theory, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Boston, London 1992.
• [40] Grzymała-Busse J.W., Hippe Z.S., Mroczek T., Paja W., Buciński A., A Preliminary Attempt to Validation of Glasgow Outcome Scale for Describing Severe Brain Damages [in:] Z.S. Hippe, J.L. Kulikowski (eds.), Human-Computer Systems Interaction Backgrounds and Applications, Springer-Verlag, Berlin/Heidelberg 2009.
• [41] Gunalp B., Dincer O., The Optimal Government Size in Transition Countries. Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Hacettepe University Beytepe, Ankara and Department of Commerce, Massey University, Auckland 2005.
• [42] Gupta S., Leruth L., de Mello L., Chakravarti S., Transition Economies: How Appropriate Is the Size and Scope of Government?, International Monetary Fund Working Paper 2001, WP/01/05.
• [43] Guseh J.S., Government size and economic growth in developing countries: a politicaleconomy framework, "Journal of Macroeconomics" 1997, Vol. 19(1).
• [44] Gwartney J., Holcombe R., Lawson R., The scope of government and the wealth of nations, "Cato Journal" 1998, Vol. 18, No. 2.
• [45] Hansson P., Henrekson M., A new framework for testing the effect of government spending on growth and productivity, "Public Choice" 1994, Vol. 81(3-4).
• [46] Heitger B., The Scope of Government and Its Impact on Economic Growth in OECD Countries, "Kiel Working Paper" 2001, No. 1034.
• [47] Illarionov A., Pivovarova N., Size of the State and Economic Growth, "Voprosy Ekonomiki (Issues of Economy): 2002, Vol. 9, pp. 18-45.
• [48] Jensen F.V., (2001), "Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs", New York: Springer-Verlag.
• [49] Jiranyakul K., Brahmasrene T., The Relationship Between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Thailand, "Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research" 2007, Vol. 8(1).
• [50] Josheski D., Lazarov D., Koteski C., (2011), Analysis of the optimal size of the government consumption, Unpublished (http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32983/1/MPRA_paper_32983.pdf)
• [51] Katz C.J., Mahler V.A., Franz M.G., The impact of taxes on growth and distribution in developed capitalist countries: A cross-national study, "American Political Science Review" 1983, Vol. 77(4).
• [52] Koester R.B., Kormendi R.C., Taxation, aggregate activity and economic growth: Crosscountry evidence on some supply-side hypotheses, "Economic Inquiry" 1989, Vol. 27.
• [53] Korpi W., Economic Growth and the Welfare State: Leaky Bucket or Irrigation System?, "European Sociological Review", Vol. 1, No. 2 (Sep., 1985).
• [54] Kustepeli Y., The Relationship Between Government Size and Economic Growth: Evidence From a Panel Data Analysis, DokuzEylül University-Faculty of Business-Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series 2005, No. 05/06, November-December.
• [55] Lam W., Bacchus F., Using Causal Information and Local Measures to Learn Bayesian Networks [in:] Proceedings of the Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, D. Heckerman, A. Mamdani, (eds.), Morgan Kaufmann 1993, pp. 243-250.
• [56] Lam W., Bacchus F., Learning Bayesian Belief Networks: an Approach Based on the MDL Principle, "Computational Intelligence" 1994, 10(3).
• [57] Landau D., Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Study, "Southern Economic Journal" 1983, January 1983, 49.
• [58] Levine R., Zervos S.J., What we have learned about policy and growth from cross-country regressions, American "Economic Review" 1993, 83(2), Papers and Proceedings.
• [59] Levine, R., Renelt D., A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions, "American Economic Review" 1992, 82(4).
• [60] Lin S.A.Y., Government spending and economic growth, "Applied Economics" 1994, Vol. 26.
• [61] Liu F., Tian F., Zhu Q., An Improved Greedy Bayesian Network Learning Algorithm on Limited Data, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 2007a, Part I, 4668.
• [62] Liu F., Zhu Q., The Max-relevance and Minredundancy Greedy Bayesian Network Learning Algorithm, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 2007, Part I, 4527.
• [63] Liu F., Zhu Q., Max-relevance and Minredundancy Greedy Bayesian Network Learning on High Dimensional Data [in:] Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Natural Computation, J. Lei, J. Yoo, Q. Zhang (eds.), IEEE 2007b.
• [64] Magazzino C., Forte F., Optimal size of government and economic growth in EU-27, MPRA Paper 26669, University Library of Munich, Germany 2010.
• [65] Marlow M.L., Private sector shrinkage and the growth of industrialized economies, "Public Choice" 1986, Vol. 49(2).
• [66] Marlow M.L., Private sector shrinkage and the growth of industrialized economies: Reply, "Public Choice" 1988, Vol. 58(3).
• [67] McTigue M., Rolling Back Government: Lessons from New Zealand, April 2004, vol. 33, no 4, reprinted by permission from Imprimis, the National speech digest of Hillsdale College 2004 (www.hillsdale.edu).
• [68] Mitchell D.J., The Impact of Government Spending on Economic Growth, The Heritage Foundation, March 31, 2005, No. 1831.
• [69] Mroczek T., Bayesian Networks [in:] Z.S. Hippe, J.W. Grzymała-Busse (eds.), Selected methods data mining. Analysis of the inconsistence data, Springer -Verlag 2011.
• [70] Mroczek T., Grzymała-Busse J.W., Hippe Z.S., A New Machine Learning Tool for Mining Brain Stroke Data [in:] Proceedings of 3rd IEEE International Conference on Human System Interaction (HSI'2010), Rzeszow, 13-15.05.2010.
• [71] Mroczek T., Pancerz K., Warchoł J., Belief Networks in Classification of Laryngopathies Based on Speech Spectrum Analysis, Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence 2012, 7414.
• [72] Pawlak Z., Rough Sets, Intern J Comp Inf Sci, 1982, 11.
• [73] Peden E.A., Bradley M.D., Government size, productivity and economic growth: The post war experience, "Public Choice" 1989, Vol. 61(3).
• [74] Peltzman S., The Growth of Government, "The Journal of Law and Economics" 1980, October 1980, 209-87.
• [75] Poulson B.W., Kaplan J.G., State Income Taxes and Economic Growth, "Cato Journal" 2008, Vol. 28(1).
• [76] Rabushka A., Taxation and Liberty in the Third World, Paper presented at the Liberty Fund Symposium, September 1985.
• [77] Ram R., AssociationGovernment Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidence from Cross-Section and Time-Series Data, "The American Economic Review", Vol. 76, No. 1 (Mar., 1986).
• [78] Ramayandi A. Economic Growth And Government Size In Indonesia: Some Lessons For The Local Authorities, Working Paper in Economics and Development Studies, Department of Economics Padjadjaran University, No. 2003/02.
• [79] Romero-Avila D., Strauch R., Public Finances and Long-Term Growth in Europe: Evidence from a Panel Data Analysis, "European Journal of Political Economy" 2008, 24(1).
• [80] Rubinson R., Dependency, Government Revenue, and Economic Growth, 1955-70, "Studies in Comparative International Development" 1977, 12.
• [81] Ruta A., Estrin S., Mickiewicz T., Size matters: entrepreneurial entry and government, Small Bus Econ 2012, 39.
• [82] Sahin F., Devasia A., Distributed Particle Swarm Optimization for Structural Bayesian Network Learning [in:] Swarm Intelligence: Focus on Ant and Particle Swarm Optimization, F.T.S. Chan, M.K. Tiwari (eds.), I-Tech Education and Publishing, Chapter 27, Vienna, Austria 2007.
• [83] Saunders P., Public Expenditure and Economic Performance in OECD Countries, Paper presented at the Conference on Social Policy and the Economy: The Future of the Welfare State, University of Bath, June, 1984.
• [84] Scully G.W., Economic Freedom, Government Policy and the Trade-Off Between Equity and Economic Growth, "Public Choice" 2002, Vol. 113(1-2).
• [85] Sheehey E., (1993), The Effect of Government Size on Economic Growth, "Eastern Economic Journal" 1993, Vol. 19, issue 3.
• [86] Skica T., Efektywność wydatkowania publicznego w Polsce, Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Koszalińskiej, 2011, No 14.
• [87] Skica T., Ocena wpływu rozmiarów sektora finansów publicznych w Polsce na efektywność wydatkowania publicznego, Acta Universitatis Nicolai Copernici, 2014, Vol. 45(2).
• [88] Slemrod J., What do cross-country studies teach about government involvement, prosperity, and economic growth?, "Brookings Papers on Economic Activity" 1995, Issue 2.
• [89] Steck H., On the Use of Skeletons when Learning in Bayesian Networks" [in:] Proceedings of the Sixteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, C. Boutilier, M. Goldszmidt (eds.). Morgan Kaufmann, 2000, pp. 558-565.
• [90] Summers R., Heston A., Improved International Comparisons of Real Product and its Composition: 1950-80, "Review of Income and Wealth" 1984, June 1984, 30.
• [91] Vedder R.K. i L.E. Gallaway (1998), Government size and Economic growth, Paper prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress 1998.
• [92] Yavas A., (1998), "Does too much government investment retard economic development of a country", Journal of Economic Studies" 1998, 25(4).
• [93] Yuk W., Government size and economic growth: Time-series evidence for the United Kingdom 1830-1993, Econometrics Working Paper EWP0501, Department of Economics, University of Victoria 2005.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.7862/rz.2016.mmr.32