Estimating the membership function of the fuzzy willingness-to-pay/accept for health via Bayesian modelling

• Autorzy: Michał Jakubczyk
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Determining how to trade off individual criteria is often not obvious, especially when attributes of very different nature are juxtaposed, e.g. health and money. The difficulty stems both from the lack of adequate market experience and strong ethical component when valuing some goods, resulting in inherently imprecise preferences. Fuzzy sets can be used to model willingness-to-pay/accept (WTP/WTA), so as to quantify this imprecision and support the decision making process. The preferences need then to be estimated based on available data. In the paper I show how to estimate the membership function of fuzzy WTP/WTA, when decision makers' preferences are collected via survey with Likert-based questions. I apply the proposed methodology to an exemplary data set on WTP/WTA for health. The mathematical model contains two elements: the parametric representation of the membership function and the mathematical model how it is translated into Likert options. The model parameters are estimated in a Bayesian approach using Markov-chain Monte Carlo. The results suggest a slight WTPWTA disparity and WTA being more fuzzy as WTP. The model is fragile to single respondents with lexicographic preferences, i.e. not willing to accept any trade-offs between health and money. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Health; Health care services market; Bayesian models; Fuzzy preference relation

PL

Zdrowie; Rynek usług zdrowotnych; Modele bayesowskie; Rozmyta relacja preferencji

• Czasopismo: Collegium of Economic Analysis SGH - Working Papers
• Rocznik: 2016
• Numer: nr 11
• Strony: 7

Twórcy

autor

Michał Jakubczyk

• Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

Bibliografia

• Bellavance F., G. Dionne, M. Lebeau, The value of a statistical life: a meta-analysis with a mixed effects regression model, "Journal of Health Economics", vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 444-464, 2009.
• Bleichrodt H., P. Wakker, M. Johannesson, Characterizing QALYs by Risk Neutrality, "Journal of Risk and Uncertainty", vol. 15, pp. 107-114, 1997.
• Brooks R., F. De Charro, EuroQol: The current state of play, "Health Policy", vol. 37, pp. 53-72, 1996.
• Dubourg W., M. Jones-Lee, G. Loomes, Imprecise Preferences and the WTP-WTA Disparity, "Journal of Risk and Uncertainty", vol. 9, pp.115-133, 1994.
• Golicki D., M. Jakubczyk, M. Niewada, W. Wrona, J. Busschbach, Valuation of EQ-5D Health States in Poland: First TTO-Based Social Value Set in Central and Eastern Europe, "Value in Health", vol. 13, pp.289-297, 2010.
• Hultkrantz L., M. Svensson, The value of a statistical life in Sweden: a review of the empirical literature, "Health Policy", vol. 108, no. 2-3, pp. 302-310, 2012.
• Jakubczyk M., Choosing from multiple alternatives in cost-effectiveness analysis with fuzzy willingness-to-pay/accept and uncertainty, mimeo, 2016.
• Jakubczyk M., Using a fuzzy approach in multi-criteria decision making with multiple alternatives in health care, "Multiple Criteria Decision Making", forthcoming, 2016.
• Jakubczyk M., B. Kamiński, Fuzzy approach to decision analysis with multiple criteria and uncertainty in health technology assessment, "Annals of Operations Research", doi: 10.1007/s10479-015-1910-9, 2015.
• Klir G., T. Folger, Fuzzy sets, uncertainty, and information. Prentice-Hall, 1988.
• Smithson M., Fuzzy Set Analysis for Behavioral and Social Sciences. Springer-Verlag, 1987.
• Viscusi W., J. Aldy, The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates Throughout the World, "Journal of Risk and Uncertainty", vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 5-76, 2003.