Flood risk assessment model using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

• Autorzy: Marija Kerkez , Vladimir Gajović , Goran Puzić

Warianty tytułu

Model oceny ryzyka powodzi przy użyciu rozmytego analitycznego procesu hierarchicznego

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Sustainable development and natural disasters are closely interlinked. The impact of catastrophic events on the environment is still very difficult to determine, and such losses are generally underestimated. Development is never neutral in relation to catastrophes: it creates, enhances or reduces the risk of their occurrence. Selection of appropriate methods and mathematical models for risk assessment in relation to the specific features and characteristics of the considered system and available information and resources, is a key parameter of reliability assessment. Numerous authors applied AHP methods with flood risk assessment, but very limited literature is avaliable on the use of fuzzy multiobjective analysis in flood studies. In the recent years, the fuzzy approach for flood risk assessments has gained greater importance. In this paper, we present the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) model for flood risk assessments. Two flood hazard indexes were defined, one based on natural factors and one based on anthropogenic factors. FAHP is applied to data sets to illustrate a model.(original abstract)

Zrównoważony rozwój i katastrofy naturalne są ściśle ze sobą powiązane. Wpływ wydarzeń o charakterze katastroficznym na środowisko jest nadal trudny do określenia i takie straty są generalnie niedoszacowane. Rozwój nigdy nie jest neutralny w stosunku do katastrof: tworzy on, zwiększa lub redukuje ryzyko ich wystąpienia. Wybór właściwych metod i modeli matematycznych do oceny ryzyka w stosunku do określonych cech i funkcji danego systemu, a także dostępnych informacji i zasobów jest kluczowym parametrem w ocenie wiarygodności. Wielu autorów stosowało metody AHP przy ocenie ryzyka powodzi, ale niewiele publikacji dotyczy zastosowania rozmytej analizy wieloobiektowej w badaniach nad powodziami. W ostatnich latach, rozmyte podejście oceny ryzyka powodzi zyskało na znaczeniu. W niniejszej pracy przedstawiamy model rozmytego analitycznego procesu hierarchicznego (ang. FAHP) do oceny ryzyka powodzi. Zdefiniowano dwa wskaźniki zagrożenia powodzią, jeden oparty na czynnikach naturalnych i jeden na czynnikach antropogenicznych. FAHP został zastosowany w celu zilustrowania modelu.(abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); Disaster; Risk analysis

PL

Analityczny proces hierarchiczny; Katastrofa; Analiza ryzyka

• Czasopismo: Progress in Economic Sciences
• Rocznik: 2017
• Numer: nr 4
• Strony: 271--282

Twórcy

autor

Marija Kerkez

• John Naisbitt University, Belgrade, Serbia

autor

Vladimir Gajović

• Dunav Insurance Company, Belgrade, Serbia

autor

Goran Puzić

• Park šuma Kraljevica bb, Zaječar, Serbia

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.14595/PES/04/019