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2017 | 6 | nr 2 | 9--21
Tytuł artykułu

Heavy-tailed Distributions and the Canadian Stock Market Returns

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Many of financial engineering theories are based on so-called "complete markets" and on the use of the Black-Scholes formula. The formula relies on the assumption that asset prices follow a log-normal distribution, or in other words, the daily fluctuations in prices viewed as percentage changes follow a Gaussian distribution. On the contrary, studies of actual asset prices show that they do not follow a log-normal distribution. In this paper, we investigate several widely-used heavy-tailed distributions. Our results indicate that the Skewed t distribution has the best empirical performance in fitting the Canadian stock market returns. We claim the results are valuable for market participants and the financial industry. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Tom
6
Numer
Strony
9--21
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
autor
  • Bank of Canada, Canada
autor
  • University of Manitoba, Canada
autor
  • Illinois State University, United States
Bibliografia
  • Ahn, S., Kim, Joseph H.T., & Ramaswami. V. (2012). A new class of models for heavy tailed distributions in finance and insurance risk. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 51(1), 43-52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.msmatheco.2012.02.002.
  • Asmussen, S. (2003). Stead-state properties of GI/G/1. Applied Probability and Queues - Stochastic Modelling and Applied Probability, vol. 51, 266-301.
  • Bradley, B. O., & Taqqu, M. S. (2003). Financial risk and heavy tails. Handbook of Heavy Tailed Distributions in Finance, Chapter 2, vol. 1, 35-103. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ B978-044450896-6.50004-2.
  • Cont, R. (2001). Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues. Quantitative Finance, vol. 1, 223-236.
  • Day, M., & Diamond, M. (2017), GARCH model, heavy tails and the Chinese stock market returns, Working paper.
  • Glasserman, P., Heidelberger, P., & Shahabuddin, P. (2002). Portfolio Value-at-Risk with heavytailed risk factors. Mathematical Finance, 12(3), 239-269. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111 /1467-9965.00141.
  • Guo, Zi-Yi (2017a). Heavy-tailed distribution and risk management of equity market tail events. Journal of Risk & Control, vol. 4, 31-41. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.301379.
  • Guo, Zi-Yi (2017b), A Stochastic Factor Model for Risk Management of Commodity Derivatives, Proceedings of the 7th Economic and Finance Conference, 26-42.
  • Guo, Zi-Yi (2017c), Models with Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Risk Management of Commodity Derivatives, mimeo.
  • Guo, Zi-Yi (2017d). How Information Is Transmitted across the Nations? An Empirical Investigation of the US and Chinese Commodity Markets. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 17(2), 1-11.
  • Hansen, B. (1994). Autoregressive conditional density estimation. International Economic Review, vol. 35, 705-730. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2527081.
  • Huber-Carol, C., Balakrishnan, N., Nikulin, M., & Mesbah, M. (2002). Goodness-of-Fit Tests and Model Validity, Springer.
  • Ibragimov, R. (2009). Heavy-tailed densities. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics Online.
  • IMF (2014). Canada financial sector stability assessment. International Monetary Fund Country Report No. 14/29.
  • Karolyi, G. A. (1995). A multivariate GARCH model of international transmissions of stock returns and volatility: the case of the United States and Canada. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(1), 11-25. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1392517.
  • Maree, A. (2017), Regulatory requirements, risk management and the equity market in New Zealand, Working paper.
  • Maree, A., Carr, G., & Howard, J. (2017). A new class of heavy-tailed distribution in GARCH models for the silver returns, Journal of Progressive Research in Social Sciences, 5(2), 364-368.
  • Mittnik, S., & Paolella, M. S. (2003). Prediction of financial downside-risk with heavytailed conditional distributions. Handbook of Heavy Tailed Distributions in Finance, Chapter 9, vol. 1, 385-404.
  • Park, T. H., & Switzer, L. N. (1995). Bivariate GARCH estimation of the optimal hedge ratios for stock index futures: A note. The Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 15, 61-67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/fut.3990150106.
  • Prause, K. (1999). The generalized hyperbolic model: estimation, financial derivatives, and risk measures. Ph.D. Dissertation.
  • Ramchand, L., & Susmel, R. (1998). Volatility and cross correlation across major stock markets. Journal of Empirical Finance, 5(4), 397-416. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ S0927-5398(98)0003-6.
  • Sadorsky, P. (1999). Oil price shocks and stock market activity. Energy Economics, 21(5), 449-469. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-9883(99)00020-1.
  • Taeger, D. & Kuhnt, S. (2014). Goodness-of-fit tests. Statistical Hypothesis Testing with SAS and R, Wiley Online Library.
  • Theodossiou, P., & Unro, L. (1993). Mean and volatility spillovers across major national stock markets: further empirical evidence. The Journal of Financial Research, 16(4), 337-350. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6803.1993.tb00152.x.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171492704

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