Analysis of Demographic Processes In Poland and the Baltic States Since the End of the XVIII Century and Forecast up to 2096

• Autorzy: Andrei Manakov , Pavel Suvorkov
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Negative demographic tendencies are some of the most serious problems of development of post-Socialist countries. Goal of this research is historical analysis and forecast of demographic processes in Poland and the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). The demographic forecast is prepared on the basis of revision of forecast model of the Population Division of United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Scenario approach and simulation multi-factor modeling act as the main methods of this research. One of the key objectives is critical analysis of use of the hypothesis of stabilization of migration components of demographic processes in scenarios of UN Secretariat. According to the most probable scenario, Latvia (-49% of modern population) can become the leader in expected depopulation within the next 80 years among the considered countries, smaller indicators of depopulation are expected in Lithuania (-43%), Poland (-38%) and Estonia (-34%). (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Mortality; Migration; Demographic forecasting

PL

Umieralność; Migracja; Prognozowanie demograficzne

• Czasopismo: Journal of Geography, Politics and Society
• Rocznik: 2017
• Numer: nr 7(4)
• Strony: 5--13

Twórcy

autor

Andrei Manakov

• Pskov State University, Russia

autor

Pavel Suvorkov

• Higher School of Economics in Moscow, Russia

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.4467/24512249JG.17.032.7632