Assessing Thailand's Financial Vulnerability : An Early Warning Approach

• Autorzy: Chin Hong Puah , Tai Hock Kuek , M. Affendy Arip
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper intends to assess financial vulnerability in Thailand through the construction of a financial vulnerability indicator (FVI). This early warning system has been developed using the signals approach proposed by Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), followed by composite indicator construction. The period under study spans from January 2000 through to December 2016. Our empirical findings indicate that exports has the lowest noise-to-signal ratio (0.13), followed by real GDP (0.15) and house price index (0.20). These suggest that financial crises are usually preceded by a weakening in exports, a slowdown in the economy and a decline in house price. For Thailand, four major financial episodes are successfully outlined during the study period, demonstrating the effectiveness of an early warning system in financial vulnerability forecasting. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Financial risk; Early warning system; Financial crisis; Financial vulnerability

PL

Ryzyko finansowe; System wczesnego ostrzegania; Kryzys finansowy; Słabość finansowa

• Czasopismo: Business and Economic Horizons
• Rocznik: 2017
• Numer: vol. 13, iss. 4
• Strony: 496--505

Twórcy

autor

Chin Hong Puah

• Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Malaysia

autor

Tai Hock Kuek

• Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Malaysia

autor

M. Affendy Arip

• Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Malaysia

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.15208/beh.2017.34