Zjawisko ujemnej stopy dyskontowej w oparciu o behawioralną hipotezę cyklu życia Shefrina i Thalera

• Autorzy: Marcin Palenik

Warianty tytułu

Negative Discount Rate Based on Behavioral Life-Cycle Hypothesis

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Zjawisko ujemnej stopy dyskontowej, a więc preferencji odroczenia w czasie korzystnych zdarzeń, jest zjawiskiem rzadkim, jak również mało zbadanym. Niniejszy artykuł koncentruje się na okolicznościach mogących istotnie zwiększyć częstotliwość występowania ujemnej stopy dyskontowej. Wyprowadzono w nim, a następnie zweryfikowano empirycznie hipotezy badawcze wynikające z teorii Behavioral Life-Cycle Hypothesis (BLCH) autorstwa Shefrina i Thalera. Zgodnie z dwiema pierwszymi hipotezami, wysoki poziom aktualnego majątku oraz wysoki poziom dochodów są czynnikami sprzyjającymi występowaniu preferencji odroczenia dodatkowych środków pieniężnych. Dwie kolejne hipotezy odnosiły się do przyszłych dochodów. Jak pokazały badania, oczekiwany spadek dochodów wpływa na większą skłonność do odraczania dodatkowych środków pieniężnych. Natomiast oczekiwanie w przyszłości niedostatecznych dochodów w stosunku do wydatków, zachęcało badanych do odraczania części dochodów. Należy podkreślić, że nie badano chęci odroczenia konsumpcji, co jest zwykłym zjawiskiem oszczędzania, lecz odroczenia w czasie otrzymania środków pieniężnych. Taka postawa w ekonomii jest zazwyczaj całkowicie wykluczana. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The phenomenon of negative discounting, that is deferring favourable events, is rare as well as little researched. This article focuses on circumstances that could signifi cantly increase the frequency of the negative discounting. The research hypotheses resulting from the Behavioral Life-Cycle Hypothesis (BLCH) theory by Shefrin and Thaler were derived and empirically verifi ed. According to the fi rst two hypotheses, a high level of the current wealth and income are factors making more likely the preference of deferring additional cash. Two further hypotheses referred to future income. As research has shown, the expected drop in income affects the greater tendency to postpone additional cash. Secondly the expectation of insuffi cient income in relation to expenditures in the future, encouraged the respondents to postpone part of their income. It should be emphasized that it was not deferral of consumption which was studied. Therefore a normal phenomenon of saving does not explain the experiments results. Instead, studies show possibility of receiving cash deferral. Such an attitude in economics is usually completely excluded. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Cykl życia; Stopa dyskontowa; Metody dyskontowe; Ujemna stopa dyskontowa

EN

Life cycles; Discount rate; Discount method; Negative discount rate

• Czasopismo: Decyzje
• Rocznik: 2017
• Numer: nr 28
• Strony: 59--92

Twórcy

autor

Marcin Palenik

• Akademia Leona Koźmińskiego w Warszawie

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.95