Preferencje help
Widoczny [Schowaj] Abstrakt
Liczba wyników
2018 | 11 | nr 1 | 273--287
Tytuł artykułu

A Comparative Analysis of the Effectiveness of Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction Models Based on Financial Ratios: Evidence from Colombia

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
Logit and discriminant analyses have been used for corporate bankruptcy prediction in several studies since the last century. In recent years there have been dozens of studies comparing the several models available, including the ones mentioned above and also probit, artificial neural networks, support vector machines, among others. For the first time for Colombia, this paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of several models predicting corporate bankruptcy. Such models have previously been mostly used in relation to European and North American markets, whereas here they are applied to the financial ratios of three firms located in Colombia. The main objective is to corroborate the validity of these models in terms of their ability to predict firm failure in the Latin American context, specifically for two bankrupt Colombian firms and one healthy one. The analysis is conducted using bankruptcy forecasting models widely proposed in the literature and used systematically in developed countries: the multiple discriminant analysis Z-Altman model, Korol's two-function model and Prusak's P2 model. In addition, the logit and decision tree models developed by T. Korol are tested. (original abstract)
Opis fizyczny
  • Gdańsk University of Technology, Poland
  • Altman, E. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609.
  • Altman, E. (1993). Corporate financial distress and bankruptcy: a complete guide to predicting & avoiding distress and profiting from bankruptcy. New York: John Wiley & Sons. Inc
  • Beaver, W. (1966). Financial ratios as predictors of failure. Journal of Accounting Research (Supplement), 4(3), 71-111.
  • Electricaribe. (2016). Financial reports 2009-2015. Retrieved from /conocenos/inversionistas/informacion+economica/1297110271117/informe+anual.html
  • Feld, J. (2016). Standard & Poor's ratings of Pacific. Retrieved from downgrades-pacific-exploration-and-production-to-d-following-missed-interest-payment-tsepre/
  • Fitch. (2016). Fitch ratings of Isagen. Retrieved from
  • Isagen. (2016). Financial reports 2008-2015. Retrieved from information/annual-information/
  • Korol, T. (2005). Modele prognozowania upadłości przedsiębiorstw - analiza porównawcza wyników sztucznych sieci neuronowych z tradycyjną analizą dyskryminacyjną. Bank i Kredyt, 6, 10-17.
  • Korol, T. (2010). Systemy Ostrzegania Przedsiębiorstw Przed Ryzykiem Upadłości. Warszawa: Wolters Kluwer Polska.
  • Korol, T. (2013). Early warning models against bankruptcy risk for Central European and Latin American enterprises. Economic Modelling, 31, 22-30. doi:
  • Korol, T., & Korodi, A. (2011). An evaluation of effectiveness of fuzzy logic model in predicting the business bankruptcy. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 3(1), 92-107. doi:
  • Lukason, O. (2016). Characteristics of firm failure processes in an international context. PhD dissertation. Estonia: University of Tartu.
  • Moody's. (2016). Moody's ratings of Pacific. Retrieved from Pacific-EP-to-C--PR_342459
  • Ohlson, J. (1980). Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109-131.
  • Pacific. (2016). Financial reports 2008-2015. Retrieved from
  • Prusak, B. (2005). Nowoczesne metody prognozowania zagrozenia finansowego predsiebiorstw. Warszawa: Difin.
  • Riggs, H. E. (2004). Financial and economic analysis for engineering and technology management. New Jersey: Wiley- Interscience.
  • Walsh, C. (2006). Key management ratios: the clearest guide to the critical numbers that drive your business. Great Britain: Pearson Education.
Typ dokumentu
Identyfikator YADDA

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Zgłoszenie zostało wysłane

Musisz być zalogowany aby pisać komentarze.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.