The New Financial Realities in the EU Caused by Change of Revenues of the General Budget After Brexit : the Case of Poland
The EU is on a turning point marked by changes in concept of functioning of organizations resulting in choosing one of the five scenarios from the set that was presented in Rome in March 2017. Each of the scenarios has an impact on the EU's budget. However, from the very beginning some assumptions need to be made: the budget will not increase the burdens laid on MS significantly, nor will it destabilize the volume of the budget. This so happens despite new own resources expected to be introduced in the New Financial Framework. The second important condition changing the European financial realities is caused by Brexit, meaning UK - a country outside the EMU but paying for EMU states. The simple calculation shows that budget transfers from the Budget general will be used as an incentive for those states who hesitate to join the EMU. One question needs to be asked here to which answer seems to be difficult if not impossible. The question is whether the UK supports enlargement of EMU or not. Until now the UK's model of European integration has been used to reduce the volume of transfers to the MS. This was done by introducing a set different specific instruments, e.g. the UK rebate, which with time passing embraced a number of rich states. UK not having sufficient voting power in the EU used other models of persuasion. It is hard to say whether what is happening in Europe now is a new incentive or an old one. Who wants changes and why? Which direction will the changes go and are those changes wanted and desired? Within the framework of such changes, without specific strategies enabling preparation for such cuts Poland can face deep economic problems which will be linked directly to reduction of budgetary transfers. (original abstract)
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