Analiza zależności pomiędzy poziomem dochodów publicznych oraz wydatków publicznych (w relacji do PKB) a wielkością inwestycji w latach 2001- 2015 w państwach Europy Środkowo-- Wschodniej należących do Unii Europejskiej

• Autorzy: Magdalena Redo
• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

EN

More and more research results confirm the existence of non-Keynesian economic reaction to fiscal policy, partially explaining their limited effectiveness in stimulating the economy. These studies show that long-lasting fiscal consolidation, in particular by reducing public spending, can boost economic growth, and the key variable responsible for the expansive effect appears to be investment. The correlation analysis shows the existence of a negative (moderate weak)relationship between the average level of investment and the average size of the public sector in the economy (measured by the level of public revenue and public expenditure in relation to GDP) in the long run in 11 countries of Central and Eastern Europe belonging to the European Union (stronger for public expenditure: r = -0.36 and weaker for public revenue: r = -0.22). An analysis of the above correlation separately for individual economies showed negative correlation in 9 out of 11 CEE countries (both for public revenue and public expenditure) in the 2001-2015 period, of which four were strong or very strong.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Dochód narodowy; Polityka fiskalna; Wydatki publiczne; Inwestycje

EN

National income; Fiscal policy; Public expenditures; Investment

• Czasopismo: Rocznik Instytutu Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej
• Rocznik: 2017
• Numer: Vol. 15, z. 1
• Strony: 159--172

Twórcy

autor

Magdalena Redo

Bibliografia

• Alesina A., Ardagna S., Perotti R., Schiantarelli F., Fiscal policy, profits, and investment, NBER Working Paper, No. 7207, July 1999, DOI: 10.3386/w7207.
• Alesina A.F., Ardagna S., Large changes in fiscal policy: Taxes versus spending, NBER Working Paper, No. 15438, October 2009.
• Alesina A.F., Ardagna S., The design of fiscal adjustments, NBER Working Paper, No. 18423, September 2012, DOI: 10.3386/w18423.
• Arin K.P., Koray F., Are some taxes different than others? An empirical investigation of the effects of tax policy in Canada, Empirical Economics, Vol. 31, Issue 1, March 2006, s. 183-193, DOI:10.1007/s00181-005-0032-7.
• Barry F., Devereux M.B., Expansionary fiscal contraction: A theoretical exploration, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 25, Issue 1, March 2003, s. 1-23, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0164-0704(03)00004-1.
• Blanchard O., Perotti R., An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output, NBER Working Paper, No. 7269, July 1999, DOI: 10.3386/w7269.
• Cuaresma J.C., Eller M., Mehrotra A., The economic transmission of fiscal policy shocks from western to eastern Europe, BOFIT Discussion Paper, 12/2011.
• de Castro F.F., de Cos P.H., The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain, a SVAR approach, ECB Working Paper, No. 647, June 2006.
• Edelberg W., Eichenbaum M., Fisher J.D.M., Understanding the effects of a shock to government purchases, Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 2, Issue 1, January 1999, s. 166-206, DOI:10.1006/redy.1998.0036.
• Fels G., Froehlich H.P., Germany and the world economy: A German view, Economic Policy, Vol. 2, No. 4, April 1987, s. 177-195.
• Giavazzi F., Pagano M., Can severe fiscal contractions be expansionary tales from two small European economies, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 5, January 1990, s. 75-122.
• Giudice G., Turrini A., in't Veld J., Non-keynesian fiscal adjustments? A close look at expansionary fiscal consolidations in the EU, Open Economies Review, Vol. 18, Issue 5, November 2007, s. 613-630, DOI:10.1007/s11079- 007-9026-8.
• Guajardo J., Leigh D., Pescatori A., Expansionary austerity: New international evidence, IMF Working Paper, No. 11/158, July 2011.
• Heppke-Falk K.H., Tenhofen J., Wolff G.B., The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: A disaggregated SVAR analysis, Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, Economic Studies, No. 41/2006.
• Hjelm G., Effects of Fiscal Contractions: The importance of preceding exchange rate movements, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 104, No. 3, September 2002, s. 423-441.
• International Monetary Fund, Will it hurt? Macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation, World Economic Outlook: Recovery, Risk, and Rebalancing, October 2010, s. 93-124.
• Jorda O., Taylor A.M., The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy, NBER Working Paper, No. 19414, September 2013.
• Kandil M., Morsy H., Fiscal stimulus and credibility in emerging countries, IMF Working Paper, 10/123, May 2010.
• Lambertini L., Tavares J.A., Exchange rates and fiscal adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and implications for the EMU, Contributions in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5, Issue 1, Article 11, 2005.
• Perotti R., Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries, IGIER Working Paper, No. 276, December 2004.
• Redo M. (2016), Sustaining government budget deficits as a cause for the cost of public debt service increase in Western European countries in the 1995- 2015 period, "Torun International Studies", No. 1 (9), December 2016, s. 57- 65, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/TIS.2016.005.
• Redo M. (2017a), Niekeynesowska zależność pomiędzy tempem wzrostu gospodarczego a wielkością dochodow i wydatkow publicznych (w relacji do PKB) w latach 2001-2015 w 11 państwach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej należących do Unii Europejskiej, "Finanse", Nr 1(10)/2017.
• Redo M. (2017b), Deficyty budżetowe zagrożeniem dla rynkowego kosztu kapitału? Analiza zależności pomiędzy rentownością skarbowych obligacji a saldem w finansach publicznych w państwach Europy Środkowo- -Wschodniej należących do Unii Europejskiej w latach 2001-2015, [w:] red. M. Leszczyński, M. Molendowska, T. Pawłuszko, Wymiary bezpieczeństwa europejskiego, Uniwersytet Jana Kochanowskiego w Kielcach, Kielce 2017.
• Rzońca A., Ciżkowicz P., Non-keynesian effects of fiscal contraction in new member states, European Central Bank Working Paper, No. 519, September 2005.
• von Hagen J., Strauch R., Fiscal consolidations: Quality, economic conditions, and success, Public Choice, Vol. 109, Issue 3, December 2001, s. 327-346, DOI: 10.1023/A:1013073005104.
• Eurostat, Gross fixed capital formation [13.02.2017].
• Eurostat, Total general government expenditure [13.02.2017].
• Eurostat, Total general government revenue [13.02.2017].
• GUS, Roczne wskaźniki makroekonomiczne [13.02.2017].